沪铜周报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, and the short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The potential merger of mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore may increase their control of the global copper resource supply share to 15%, highlighting the tightness in the copper mine segment. There are concerns about the US advancing the proposal of refined copper tariffs, which may disrupt the balance of copper resources in other regions. The downstream spot demand is suppressed by high - priced copper, resulting in a structure of strong expectations but weak reality for copper. With the increase in copper prices, the downstream's acceptance of high prices may improve. Copper is expected to have a phased correction and a long - term upward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Macro aspect: The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, below the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low. China's CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year [3]. - Supply aspect: In 2026, copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weak. The by - products such as sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined copper production is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and one delayed commissioning [3]. - Demand aspect: The terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products segment is cautious. High prices and the expectation of year - end holidays slow down the raw material procurement. Copper inventories have increased significantly. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 111,200 tons, a weekly increase of 36%; the cathode copper inventory was 180,000 tons, a weekly increase of 24.22% [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 105,500 yuan/ton, the low was 98,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 6.85%, and the interval increase was 3.23% [6]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 9, the average premium/discount of East China cathode copper was 0 yuan/ton, and the average premium of South China was 5 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery was weak, and the holders' willingness to sell at a discount was low [11]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of January 9, LME copper rose 3.84% within the week, closing at $12,990/ton, with a spot premium of $70/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - Rio Tinto and Glencore restarted merger negotiations. If the deal is completed, their share of the global copper resource supply may reach 15%. A Canadian copper miner's Chilean mine went on strike, with an expected 70% drop in production. In 2025, China's import of copper ore and concentrates is expected to be 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% [22]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 12.99%, a decrease of 1.72% from last week. The scrap copper substitution advantage is significant, but the transaction is blocked due to weak downstream demand [27]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 9, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $45.1/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.60 cents/pound. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [31]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, a 6.8% increase. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons, a 11.38% increase. In January 2026, the refined copper production is expected to decline. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [35]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [39]. 3.10 Copper Product Production - In December 2025, the actual production of domestic refined copper rods was 809,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.36%. It is expected to be 873,300 tons in January 2026. The total production of domestic copper tubes in December 2025 was 142,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 43,500 tons [43]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [47]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; the sales volume was 7.513 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [53]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In December 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to December were 12.809 million, a 17.6% increase. In December 2025, the retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 920,000, a year - on - year decrease of 30% and a month - on - month increase of 2% [59]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of January 9, the LME copper inventory decreased by 6,350 tons to 139,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.35%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 434.28%. As of January 8, the copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 111,200 tons, a weekly increase of 36%; the cathode copper inventory was 180,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22% [64][69]