渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.12）-20260112

Macro and Strategy Research - The US manufacturing PMI has further declined in December 2025, marking the largest month-on-month drop since 2024, indicating a prolonged downturn for 10 months, while the service sector PMI remains strong, highlighting structural divergence in the US economy [2][3] - In China, the manufacturing PMI returned above the threshold in December 2025, with improvements in both supply and demand, while the non-manufacturing sector also showed unexpected recovery [3] Fixed Income Research - In December 2025, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 800 billion, with money market rates remaining low, while the yield on 10Y government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.85% by the end of December [7][9] - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with inflation and monetary policy acting as anchors for the upper and lower bounds of this range [9] Industry Research - The listing of Rebio Biotech on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has increased attention on the small nucleic acid sector, with significant developments in the industry including the approval of new drugs and strategic partnerships [10][12][13] - The SW pharmaceutical index rose by 6.13% in the week of January 5-8, 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing gains, indicating a strong market performance [13]