Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-12 12:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to clear short-term support from the oil supply side [2][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ continues to pause production increases, with a focus on compensating for overproduction since January 2024, which strengthens short-term supply support [2][3]. - The upstream sector is experiencing rising oil prices, while day rates for self-elevating drilling rigs are declining, indicating a mixed outlook for drilling services [2][13]. - The refining sector shows a decrease in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing, suggesting a potential improvement in refining profitability [2][47]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a decline in PTA profitability but an increase in polyester filament profitability, indicating a need for close monitoring of demand changes [2][10]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, up 4.26% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose 3.14% to $59.12 per barrel [13]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [14]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 2 rigs from the previous week and down 40 rigs year-on-year [27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $11.04 per barrel, down $4.15 from the previous week [49]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread increased to $15.4 per barrel, up $1.3 from the previous week, but still below the historical average of $24.5 per barrel [52]. - The olefin sector shows a positive trend with an increase in the ethylene-crude oil spread, indicating potential profitability improvements [57]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 5069.25 CNY per ton, down 0.75% week-on-week [2]. - The polyester filament POY spread increased to 905 CNY per ton, up 17 CNY from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in profitability [2][10]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new capacity comes online [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and demand conditions [10]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - The upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [10].