2026年3月全国两会展望

Fiscal Policy - The central economic work conference in 2025 emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy, with a focus on optimizing the "two new and two heavy" projects, including an allocation of CNY 625 billion in special long-term bonds[2] - Approximately CNY 2200 billion is planned for "two heavy" project construction, indicating a significant boost in fiscal spending for 2026[2] Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, balancing growth and price recovery, with potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026[2] - There is expected room for further monetary easing throughout the year, supporting economic stability and risk prevention[2] Industrial Policy - The 20th Central Committee and the "14th Five-Year Plan" propose building a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance[2] - Key focus areas for 2026 include quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, 6G, embodied intelligence, and commercial aerospace[2] Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was reported at 5.3%, with a decline to 4.8% in Q3, but 2026 is expected to show resilience despite high base effects[2] - CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI showed a similar month-on-month increase, indicating potential for inflation recovery in 2026[2] Investment Recommendations - Technology innovation and advanced manufacturing are projected to be the main development lines, with confidence in GDP growth for 2026, especially as CPI and PPI are expected to exit deflation[2] - The A-share market is anticipated to transition from a technology-driven bull market in 2025 to a broader bull market in 2026, reflecting the overall positive outlook for Chinese assets[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy progress, economic growth falling short of expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties[2]