农产品日报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy Rating: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, and Live Hogs are rated as "★★★" [1] - Neutral Rating: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil are rated as "★☆☆" [1] - Sell Rating: Eggs are rated as "★☆☆" [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It offers insights into their current market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The spot price of domestic soybeans showed an upward trend last week. Policy - based auction sales had high premiums and high transaction rates. The futures contract saw profit - taking at high positions. Supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and the market features high - quality products commanding high prices. However, price increases have dampened demand. Policy is increasing supply. Short - term focus should be on policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the USDA's January supply - demand report. The upside space for US soybeans is limited, and South American weather is favorable, with a 68% probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1. If South American weather remains stable, soybean meal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate weakly [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysia's January MPOB report showed a slight decline in production and improved demand, but inventory increased to the second - highest level since 2007. After the report, palm oil prices rose due to the game between Malaysia's weak supply - demand situation and Indonesia's policy of raising export taxes and confiscating illegal plantations [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus this week is on the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. The market expects Sino - Canadian relations to ease, which may put pressure on rapeseed products. If relations do not improve, prices may rebound due to low domestic inventories. As of January 9, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased to 60,000 tons [6] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise, with the main contract C20603 up 1.19%. Northeast spot prices were stable with an upward bias, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised purchase prices. Overall inventory is low, and the selling progress is fast. The short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely [7] Live Hogs - The live hog market remained volatile. Prices of live hogs and piglets rebounded, and industry profits approached the break - even point. The reduction of sows slowed down. Second - fattening is still taking place, supporting short - term prices. However, the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is high, and the upside space is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom in H1 next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures market declined slightly on Monday with an increase of 25,000 lots in open interest. Spot prices strengthened after New Year's Day. Low chick replenishment from August to December will lead to a decline in laying hens in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand, egg prices are expected to rise [9]