年初债市走出2025年初的镜像

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the beginning of 2026 seems to mirror the situation at the beginning of 2025. Despite short - term uncertainties, considering the rapid decline in duration and the central bank's supportive attitude, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited. Once the impacts of factors such as supply, credit, and the A - share market are weaker than expected, the bond market may continue to follow the mirror image of early 2025 and experience a recovery [2][10]. - At present, the A - share and commodity price trends are not sufficient to trigger a reversal in the bond market direction. During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks [8][10]. - It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds as the bottom - position, focus on 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds in the short term, and trade long - term bond bands opportunistically according to market conditions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. The Market Adjustment Since the Beginning of the Year is Due to Traders' Concerns about Supply Rather Than the Supply Shock Itself - The core concern in the market is the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds. The market adjustment is affected by the large issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January and the high proportion of ultra - long local bonds in some regions [3][16]. - Although the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January has increased, the net financing scale of treasury bonds in Q1 2026 is only slightly higher than that of the same period last year. The estimated net financing scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be lower than that of the same period in 2025 [20][26]. - Local governments may prefer to issue long - term bonds because refinancing bonds cannot fully cover the maturing local debt. However, the national fiscal work conference emphasizes optimizing the government bond tool portfolio, so the issuance term of local bonds may not be further extended compared to 2025 [3][30]. - The recent market adjustment is mainly caused by the large - scale net selling of public funds and securities firms. It is more of an emotional weakening due to supply concerns rather than a substantial impact. As long as the 30 - year treasury bond is the most actively traded, its pricing is still determined by traders, and it has shown higher cost - effectiveness after the recent adjustment [4][31][37]. 3.2. If External Disturbances Are Weaker Than Expected, the Bond Market May Follow the Mirror Image of Early 2025 and Experience a Recovery - Despite the continuous net withdrawal of OMO and the non - excessive renewal of 3M repurchase, the loose capital state continues, which may be related to the year - end fiscal deposit release and the central bank's supportive attitude. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January has significantly increased, and the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds is also expected to rise [41][43][45]. - Historically, supply shocks have a greater impact on the bond market in a tight liquidity environment. Currently, the central bank's attitude is supportive, and the bank's liabilities do not show obvious pressure, so the supply shock may be less than expected. The central bank has the motivation to solve the problem of the supply - demand imbalance of government bonds [47][49]. 3.3. Wait for the Impact of Risk Preference Changes to Gradually Fade - The bond market adjustment is also related to the continuous rise of the A - share and commodity prices. However, as the upward slope of the A - share market becomes steeper, its volatility increases, and the impact on the bond market has weakened. The rise in commodity prices may be short - term, and the recovery of CPI still faces challenges [50][51][56]. - During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks. Although short - term uncertainties remain, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent bond market [64][71].