Guoxin Securities·2026-01-12 13:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to benefit from increased policy support, with leading companies poised for growth [1][3]. - The overall consumption environment in 2025 is projected to be stable, with structural highlights emerging, particularly as consumption policies become clearer [1][12]. - The report identifies two main trends for 2026: the continuation of new consumption trends and the anticipated reversal of challenges faced by traditional consumption [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - In 2025, the SW retail index increased by 11.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, while the beauty care index rose by only 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 17.35 percentage points [1][16]. - The retail sector's performance was initially strong in the first half of 2025 but faced a decline in the second half due to a shift in market focus towards technology [1][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several sectors for investment: 1. Gold and Jewelry: The sector is entering a consumption peak, with low valuations and expected growth in same-store sales and channel expansion. Recommended companies include潮宏基, 菜百股份, and 周大福 [3][56]. 2. Beauty and Personal Care: The sector is returning to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery. Recommended companies include 上美股份 and 珀莱雅 [3][56]. 3. Offline Retail: The end of the year is a peak sales period, with potential positive impacts from CPI recovery. Recommended companies include 名创优品 and 永辉超市 [3][56]. 4. Cross-border E-commerce: Companies are expected to benefit from reduced external tariff impacts, with recommendations including 小商品城 and 安克创新 [3][56]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated "Outperform" for 2025 and 2026, including 潮宏基, 上美股份, and 珀莱雅, with respective PE ratios indicating growth potential [5][59]. Recent Industry Data Tracking - As of November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth was influenced by high base effects and the timing of promotional events [26][30]. - Online retail sales for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 144,582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [28][30]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent policy initiatives emphasize the importance of boosting consumer spending, with a focus on increasing the consumption rate and stabilizing demand through various measures [13][24]. - The report anticipates that traditional consumption leaders will gradually improve their performance as they adapt to new market conditions and innovate their product offerings [24][20].