市场对美联储独立性担忧恐进一步加大

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - After the New Year's Day holiday, the issuance of Chinese offshore bonds has resumed. The yields of US Treasury bonds have shown divergence. The 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 3 and increased by 6 basis points respectively last week, reaching 4.17% and 3.53%. The US December non - farm employment data was mixed, with weaker - than - expected job growth but more resilient unemployment and wage data. This led the interest rate futures market to no longer expect the Fed to continue cutting rates in January, pushing up short - term US Treasury yields [1][2][3]. - The tension between the Trump administration and the Fed has intensified. The market's concern about the Fed's independence has further increased, causing the US dollar index to fall, US stock futures to decline, and the gold price to rise significantly in the Asian session on Monday, indicating increased market risk - aversion. If market sentiment further strengthens, it may have a divergent impact on the bond market [1][4]. - In the on - shore market, after the New Year's Day holiday, funds returned to the banking system, inter - bank liquidity was abundant, and the central bank conducted net short - term liquidity withdrawals through reverse repurchase operations. The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 8 and 3 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday, mainly due to high on - shore market risk sentiment and a marginal weakening of easing expectations [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Offshore Market - After the New Year's Day holiday, the new issuance of Chinese offshore bonds resumed. There were 6 new issuances of Chinese US - dollar bonds exceeding $100 million, with a total of approximately $1.9 billion, and the issuance of offshore RMB bonds was approximately 5.5 billion RMB [2]. - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese US - dollar bond total return index rose 0.2% for the week, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points. The high - rating index rose 0.2% with a spread narrowing of 1 basis point, and the high - yield index rose slightly by 0.1% with a spread narrowing of 17 basis points [4]. US Employment Data - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The non - farm employment data for October and November was revised downwards by a total of 76,000, resulting in the weakest annual growth since 2020. However, the unemployment rate in December was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, about 1 percentage point higher than the inflation rate [3]. Fed Tension - The US Department of Justice issued a grand jury subpoena to the Fed, and threatened to file criminal charges against Fed Chairman Powell's testimony in Congress last June. Powell denied the charges, stating that it was a consequence of the Fed's independent interest - rate setting. This has increased the market's concern about the Fed's independence [4]. On - shore Market - After the New Year's Day holiday, funds returned to the banking system, and the central bank conducted net short - term liquidity withdrawals of 122.14 billion RMB through reverse repurchase operations. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased by 51 and 64 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday [6]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 8 and 3 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday, mainly due to high on - shore market risk sentiment and a marginal weakening of easing expectations. Some funds flowed from the bond market to the stock market, and the central bank's emphasis on maintaining the stability of bank net interest margins was interpreted as a potential limitation on future interest - rate cuts [6]. Recent Chinese New - issued US - dollar Bonds - The report lists the information of recent Chinese new - issued US - dollar bonds, including the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issuance amount, maturity date, issuance structure, and ratings (by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) [7]. Appendix: Chinese US - dollar Bond List - The appendix provides a detailed list of Chinese US - dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issuance amount, price, maturity date, redemption date, issuance structure, and ratings [19][20][21].