利率周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.11）：CPI同比阶段性回升-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, China's prices recovered. CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, reaching a new high since March 2023, with food prices playing a significant role, and core CPI remaining stable. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.9%, with three consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth, and prices in upstream and new-quality productivity-related industries were well-supported. In 2026, the central bank may continue its moderately loose monetary policy, with a new focus on "optimizing supply." It may focus on price recovery, keeping financing costs low, strengthening the prevention and control of financing platform debt risks, and promoting financial opening-up. In the US, the December non-farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Traders postponed the first interest rate cut in 2026 to June, with an expected total cut of 50BP for the year [2][4][118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - CPI and PPI Trends: In December 2025, CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising 1.1% and contributing significantly. Core CPI was stable at 1.2%. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.9%, and it had three consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth [4][13][29]. - Factors Affecting CPI: Food prices, especially fresh vegetables and fruits, drove CPI growth, while energy prices, affected by international oil prices, restricted CPI growth [19]. - Factors Affecting PPI: Domestic policies, seasonal demand, input factors, and new-quality productivity all influenced PPI trends. Upstream prices were supported by policies and seasonal demand, and new-quality productivity-related industries contributed to price increases [33][38]. - Central Bank Policy: The 2026 central bank work conference added "optimizing supply" as a policy focus, emphasizing balanced credit supply, reasonable price recovery, and support for financing platform debt risk resolution [43]. - US Non-farm Payrolls: In December 2025, US non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Traders postponed the first interest rate cut to June, with an expected 50BP cut for the year [4][48]. 3.2 Meso-level High-frequency Data - Consumption: Passenger car retail and wholesale volumes increased year-on-year, but movie box office revenue decreased. Three major household appliances' retail volume and revenue showed mixed trends [4][9][54]. - Transportation: Passenger transportation activities were relatively high, with increases in migration, flight numbers, and subway ridership. However, freight transportation, including postal, railway, and highway, decreased [4][9][59]. - Industry: Most industrial indicators showed a year-on-year decline, including steel production, coal consumption, and factory operating rates [4][9][64]. - Real Estate: The real estate market continued to decline, with decreases in housing sales area and land transactions [9][76][80]. - Prices: Food prices showed mixed trends, with pork prices down and vegetable prices up. Industrial product prices also varied, with some rising and some falling [4][9][90]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - Bond Yields: Most government bond yields increased, with significant adjustments at the long end. The yields of national debt, policy bank bonds, local government bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit all changed to varying degrees [4][104][109]. - Foreign Exchange Rates: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased, and the yields of ten-year government bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany also changed [113][117]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential rebound of long-term bonds. It is recommended to focus on long-term bond trading opportunities, allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupon income, and explore multi-asset investment opportunities [4].