铁合金日报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12th, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5698, up 1.17% with a decrease of 8483 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5930, up 0.44% with an increase of 4207 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, rising 50 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply start - up rate rebounded slightly, but due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand side shows that although iron - making is in the resumption cycle, the accumulation of steel inventory may restrict the resumption space of blast furnaces. With stable electricity prices in the main production areas, and considering the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, and the manganese - silicon spot rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, keeping the supply stable. The demand side is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. With the continuous decline of manganese ore port inventory and the rising overseas mine quotes, the cost push makes manganese - silicon slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - The unilateral trading strategy is that due to the expected improvement in supply and demand and cost push, it will be slightly stronger in the short - term; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market - SF main contract: closed at 5698, daily change +66, weekly change +74, trading volume 201430 (daily change - 28502), open interest 233205 (daily change - 8483) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5930, daily change +26, weekly change +56, trading volume 144766 (daily change - 27388), open interest 257314 (daily change +4207) [3]. - Spot Market - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 90 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5420 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Qinghai it was 5350 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Tianjin it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and stable weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 80 yuan/ton weekly; in Guangxi it was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 40 yuan/ton weekly; in Tianjin it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - Basis/Spread - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 248, daily change - 16, weekly change +16; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 278, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 348, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 300, daily change - 50, weekly change - 90; SF - SM spread was - 232, daily change +40, weekly change +18 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 230, daily change - 26, weekly change - 6; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 280, daily change - 6, weekly change +24; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 130, daily change +24, weekly change +14; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, daily change +50, weekly change +20 [3]. - Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree daily and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree weekly; Gabonese lump was 43 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree weekly [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi it was 770 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Slightly stronger in the short - term due to the expected marginal improvement of supply - demand and cost push [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - Important Information - South32's quotation for South African semi - carbonate lump in February 2026 shipments to China was 4.4 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25), and Australian lump was 5.1 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25) [8]. - Jupiter's announced loading price of manganese ore to China in February 2026: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate lump was 4.32 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.17) [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [9][11][13] etc.