供应仍有压力，价格震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - "粕类日报" dated January 12, 2026 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The supply of meal products still faces pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply, with price pressure expected. Domestic spot supply of soybean meal is also relatively loose, while rapeseed meal is expected to move in a sideways pattern [1][3][4][6] 4. Market Conditions Summary 4.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean Meal Futures: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3124, 2790, and 2886 respectively, with changes of 69, 4, and 10. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao increased by 10, while in Nantong it decreased by 2 [3] - Rapeseed Meal Futures: The closing prices of contracts 05 and 09 were 2330 and 2394 respectively, with changes of -8 and -4. Spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi decreased by 2 [3] - Monthly Spreads: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread increased by 65, the 59 - spread decreased by 6, and the 91 - spread decreased by 59. For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread increased by 8, the 59 - spread decreased by 4, and the 91 - spread decreased by 4 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 decreased. The spot spread of soybean meal minus rapeseed meal increased by 14, and the spread of rapeseed meal minus sunflower meal decreased by 10 [3] 4.2 Market Trends - The US soybean market showed a slight increase after the release of the monthly supply - demand report. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise but is expected to narrow [3] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is loose, with downward price pressure. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress is accelerating but remains at a low level compared to the same period in history. Brazilian new - crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, with exports likely to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent exports and crushing have increased [4] 5.2 Domestic Market - The domestic spot market of soybean meal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate is increasing, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons (a 0.4% increase from last week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons (a 10.78% decrease from last week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the supply pressure remains [5] 6. Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is oscillating. Brazil's short - term weather has little impact on crop growth, and the pressure of a bumper harvest may continue. The international soybean market supply is loose, and prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, but supply is uncertain. In the long - term, supply is still relatively loose, and prices face pressure. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to face pressure [6] 7. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a short - selling strategy - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7] 8. Soybean Pressing Profit - Pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For February, the spot pressing profit increased by 47.92 compared to yesterday. For March, it increased by 39.38. For April, it increased by 36.55. For May, it increased by 29.26. For June, it increased by 37.85. For July, it increased by 43.59 [8]