螺纹热卷日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price in the futures market continued to rise today, while the spot steel trading volume was generally average. The basis slightly shrunk, with a small amount of spot-futures purchases and mainly low-price transactions. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with the inventory shifting from the factory warehouse to the social warehouse, and the overall rebar inventory accumulated. - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a replenishment demand in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival. The steel export performance in January remained strong. - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a sharp rise, which led to an increase in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, the continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further rise of steel prices. In the short term, the steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Rebar Futures: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 21 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The rebar profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - Rebar Spot: The prices of rebar in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3200 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] - Hot-rolled Coil Futures: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 17 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 45 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The hot-rolled coil profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - Hot-rolled Coil Spot: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] Market Analysis - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3190 yuan (-). [5] - Trading Strategy - Single-sided Trading: The steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil/coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil/rebar spread. [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - Important Information - From January 12th, Langfang City issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response. [10] - In December 2025, 472 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was approximately 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start-up investment were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively. [11] Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different contracts and regions from 2022 to 2026. [15][16][17]