南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：东南亚降雨下降，马来半岛有偏干风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil-producing areas currently, and it may be nearing its end as the Southern Oscillation Index approaches the 0-axis [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has decreased, with sporadic rain in eastern Malaysia and Kalimantan, Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has poor soil moisture, and drought may spread in February. Most areas in Indonesia have sufficient rainfall, but attention should be paid to parts of Central and West Kalimantan. There is a risk of dry soil in other regions of Malaysia, and attention should be paid to local drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and Kalimantan, Indonesia [1] - There is limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters currently. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Regional Summaries Indonesia - Jambi: Rainfall is on a downward trend, but soil moisture is good with no drought disturbances [23] - Kalimantan Barat: Rainfall is decreasing at the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil moisture [28] - Kalimantan Tengah: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil moisture may decline [36] - Kalimantan Timur: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [43] - Riau: Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [51] - Sumatera Selatan: Rainfall is increasing, and soil moisture is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [58] - Sumatera Utara: Rainfall has returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [64] Malaysia - Johor: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture may decline [70] - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [77] - Perak: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has declined [84] - Sabah: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - Sarawak: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [97]