金信期货日刊-20260113

Report Information - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily Journal - Report Date: January 13, 2026 - Report Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract, including strong cost support, supply contraction, rigid demand and restocking, technical and capital resonance, and positive policy expectations [4]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index has had 17 consecutive positive days, with a short - term adjustment requirement in the 5 - minute cycle, and every intraday adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [6][7]. - For gold, after an oscillatory adjustment, it has reached a new high, and the operation should be mainly long - buying [11]. - For iron ore, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is weak, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged after a post - break correction [13][14]. - For glass, with the daily melting volume decreasing and inventory being depleted, the main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged after a high - level consolidation [16][17]. - For methanol, due to changes in Iranian imports, ports are likely to enter a destocking cycle, and the short - term price trend is mainly oscillatory and bullish [21]. - For pulp, the inventory of mainstream ports in China has continued to accumulate, with a 0.5% month - on - month increase, and the futures market has shown an interval oscillatory trend [24]. Summary by Related Categories Coking Coal - Cost Support: The spot price has reached the coal mine cost line, with some below the imported coal cost. A strong support is formed around 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuation is at a historical low with strong repair momentum [4]. - Supply: Safety inspections in major production areas have been upgraded, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have shut down for maintenance ahead of schedule, and the production capacity in Yulin has been reduced by about 19 million tons, resulting in a tight supply of high - quality coking coal [4]. - Demand: Steel mills will resume production after maintenance in January, with the daily hot - metal output expected to rise to around 2.3 million tons. Steel mills' coking coal inventory is at a medium - low level, and there is a clear rigid restocking demand before the Spring Festival [4]. - Technical and Capital Factors: The price has broken through the previous oscillatory platform, with MACD forming a golden cross and moving averages in a bullish arrangement. The main contract has increased positions while rising, indicating that bulls are more willing to enter the market than bears and are actively deploying capital [4]. - Policy: The "anti - involution" and capacity optimization of the steel industry are advancing, and macro - level growth - stabilizing measures are increasing. The 2605 contract bears the pricing expectation of demand recovery in the second quarter, with sentiment and valuation being repaired simultaneously [4]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index has had 17 consecutive positive days, with two consecutive large positive lines accelerating the rise and increasing trading volume. Technically, the 5 - minute small - cycle requires an adjustment [7]. - Operation Strategy: Every intraday adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [6]. Gold - Market Performance: After an oscillatory adjustment, gold has reached a new high [11]. - Operation Strategy: The operation should be mainly long - buying [11]. Iron Ore - Supply: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented [14]. - Demand: Except for exports still having some momentum, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak [14]. - Technical Analysis: After a breakthrough, there has been a correction, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [13]. Glass - Supply and Demand: The daily melting volume has continued to decline slightly, and inventory has been depleted. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and the supply - side clearance of the "anti - involution" policy [17]. - Technical Analysis: After a breakthrough, it is in a high - level consolidation, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [16]. Methanol - Supply: It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. Iran implemented large - scale gas - limiting shutdown measures in December, significantly reducing its methanol exports. The arrival volume of Iranian goods in China in January is expected to drop sharply from 1.3576 million tons in December 2025 to 0.78 million tons. The import volume from the Middle East may be halved, and ports are likely to enter a destocking cycle [21]. - Price Trend: The short - term price trend is mainly oscillatory and bullish [21]. Pulp - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 million tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous period, with a 0.5% month - on - month rise. The inventory in Qingdao Port, a mainstream port in China, has continued to accumulate, and the average daily shipment speed in the port has not changed much compared with the previous period [24]. - Market Performance: The futures market has shown an interval oscillatory trend [24].