综合晨报：A股成交额3.64万亿元创历史新高-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share trading volume reached a record high of 3.64 trillion yuan, but there are potential regulatory risks and market self - adjustment risks [2][22]. - The investigation of the Fed Chairman by the US Department of Justice has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence, affecting the prices of precious metals, the US dollar index, US stock index futures, and US Treasury bond futures [3][11][16]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is different. For example, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the price trends of different metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as policies, production, and geopolitical situations [4][37][69]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell by the US Department of Justice is considered an excuse by Trump to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, which has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence [10]. - CME will change the margin setting method for precious metals, which may increase market volatility. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before making long - term allocations [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The investigation of Powell has led to criticism from key Republican members, and the market's concern about the Fed's independence has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken. It is expected that the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Trump's tariff policy on Iran has affected the market. Although the market is worried about the Fed's independence, the risk appetite of the US stock market has moderately recovered. It is expected that the US stock market will continue to fluctuate strongly [18][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share trading volume reached a record high, but some listed companies' statements cooled the market. It is believed that the probability of regulatory intervention is high, and the market self - adjustment is a risk point. It is recommended to continue holding long - term strategies for stock index futures [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. Although the bond market has signs of a rebound, the long - term suppression factors still exist. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and betting on rebounds and pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal remained stable, and the coal price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in January, with limited room for continuous rebound [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Tata Steel plans to acquire 50.01% of the equity of Thriveni Pellets. The iron ore market is in an oscillation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate without a clear trend [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/HRC) - The steel price is oscillating strongly, but the contradiction in the steel market is gradually accumulating. It is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillating mindset in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. There is a certain demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival, but the increase in iron water production needs to be monitored [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the USDA reports were bearish. It is expected that the price of soybean meal futures will continue to be weak [37][39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased in early January, and the production decreased. The inventory in December exceeded expectations, but the market has already priced it in. It is expected that the palm oil price will start a rebound [41][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Codelco and SQM is expected to achieve a production of 250,000 tons in 2026. The adjustment of the battery export tax - rebate policy is beneficial to the demand for lithium carbonate. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and be cautious for new long positions [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - The copper premium in Japan reached a record high, and some companies have investment and cooperation plans. The short - term copper price fluctuation is expected to intensify. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [50][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia increased slightly. The market is expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - Heavy pollution emergency responses were launched in some northern regions. The zinc price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [61][63][64]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Tin) - The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Trump's tariff policy on Iran has increased the risk premium of oil prices. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices [68][69][70]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The price of urea is oscillating strongly. The supply is recovering, and the demand is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to wait for a reasonable valuation before going long on the 05 contract [73][74]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The price of styrene is strong, but the profit margin is high. Attention should be paid to factors such as tax policies and oil price fluctuations [75][76][77].