Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For crude oil, the current Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. - For rubber, currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude - oil futures rose 11.70 yuan/barrel, or 2.75%, to 437.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that total refined - oil inventories increased by 0.51 million barrels to 45.15 million barrels, a 1.15% increase month - on - month [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 86 yuan [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1783 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price showed signs of weakening. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year [9][10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4940 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton. The basis was - 320 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Factory inventory was 32.8 million tons (+1.9), and social inventory was 111.4 million tons (+3.7) [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged at 5320 yuan/ton, and the futures price was also unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 88 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton. The basis weakened. The upstream operating rate of the supply side was 70.92%, up 0.22%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 million tons [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6674 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, up 0.04% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory increased by 2.47 million tons to 39.54 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 2.93 million tons [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6514 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, down 1.03% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons to 46.77 million tons, trader inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 20.47 million tons, and port inventory increased by 0.48 million tons to 7.11 million tons [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose 70 yuan to 7308 yuan. PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 897 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 81.2%, up 0.3% month - on - month. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 million tons, up 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons month - on - month [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 34 yuan to 5142 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 5100 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 48 yuan. The PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 4 was 203 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons [31]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 14 yuan to 3880 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 3697 yuan. The basis was - 150 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan. The ethylene - glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2% month - on - month. The port inventory was 80.2 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons [34]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35].
能源化工日报-20260113
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-13 00:37