农产品早报2026-01-13：五矿期货农产品早报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February and the full realization of the increased production's negative impact. The domestic sugar price has limited downside space in the short - term, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the price may fluctuate more significantly after reaching a high level. It's recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [8]. - For protein meal, the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China possibly discussing canola tariffs and large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, it's advisable to wait and see in the short - term [12]. - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom range [15]. - For eggs, the near - month contracts can be shorted on rebounds, and attention should be paid to the pressure on the far - month contracts after over - valuation [18]. - For pigs, in the short - term, the near - month contracts may be strong, but in the medium - term, it's advisable to short on rebounds. For the far - end contracts, it's advisable to buy on dips [21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5285 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups changed slightly. The Brazilian sugar export volume in December was 291.3 million tons, with an increase of 8 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 39 million tons month - on - month. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume also increased [2][3]. - Strategy: Wait for the northern hemisphere's harvest in February and the full realization of the increased production's negative impact. The international sugar price may rebound. The domestic sugar price has limited downside space in the short - term, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton - Market Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 14625 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The Brazilian cotton export volume in December was 45 million tons, with an increase of 10 million tons year - on - year and 5 million tons month - on - month. The US cotton export sales data showed a year - on - year decrease. The spinning mill's operation rate was 64.7%, and the national cotton commercial inventory was 557 million tons, with an increase of 29 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - Strategy: Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the price may fluctuate more significantly after reaching a high level. It's recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [8]. Protein Meal - Market Information: On Monday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2790 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day, and the May rapeseed meal contract was 2330 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.34%. The US soybean export volume decreased week - on - week, and the domestic soybean arrival volume and port inventory decreased. The soybean oil mill's operation rate decreased year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week [10][11]. - Strategy: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China possibly discussing canola tariffs and large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, it's advisable to wait and see in the short - term [12]. Oils - Market Information: On Monday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in December, and the production decreased. The domestic three - major oils inventory was 208 million tons, with an increase of 15.86 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 7.02 million tons week - on - week [13]. - Strategy: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom range [15]. Eggs - Market Information: Most regions' egg prices rose yesterday, with normal supply and good downstream demand. It's expected that the egg price may be stable or rise today [17]. - Strategy: The near - month contracts can be shorted on rebounds, and attention should be paid to the pressure on the far - month contracts after over - valuation [18]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price showed different trends yesterday. The northern market showed resistance to price drops, and the southern market may have a slight increase [20]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the near - month contracts may be strong, but in the medium - term, it's advisable to short on rebounds. For the far - end contracts, it's advisable to buy on dips [21].