原油：供需宽松主导全年，价格中枢下移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the pressure of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market remains high. The price center and fluctuation range of oil prices will further decline. Attention should be focused on the bottom support of WTI at $50 per barrel and Brent at $55 per barrel. The range of $50 - $60 per barrel for Brent can be regarded as a key support zone. Future market trading may focus more on the demand side. Although there are disturbances in geopolitical aspects on the supply side, the overall risk is controllable. In the face of a decline in demand, oil - producing countries may value market share more. Unless prices remain low, the possibility of supply cuts is not high. There may be continuous inventory accumulation in the future, which will put pressure on absolute and relative prices [71] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand Outlook - Gasoline demand: Global gasoline demand is expected to reach a peak of 27.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and decline thereafter. As of the end of 2024, the global electric passenger vehicle stock accounts for about 4% of the global passenger vehicle stock, and the substitution effect of electric vehicles on oil consumption has reached a considerable scale. In 2025, this substitution effect will be in an accelerating stage. Regionally, China's gasoline demand will decline year - on - year in 2025, European gasoline demand will be stable before 2027 and have no growth basis after that, and US gasoline demand will remain resilient in 2025 but be in a high - level shock after reaching the peak, failing to drive global gasoline demand positively [10][12] - Diesel demand: In the context of a weakening industrial cycle and accelerating industrial electrification, diesel demand is negatively affected. In the US, due to the improvement of fuel efficiency and the promotion of alternative fuel paths, diesel demand is difficult to increase significantly. In China, the linear relationship between diesel demand and freight scale is weakened, showing the structural characteristic of "freight growth without diesel growth", mainly because natural gas substitutes for diesel (it is estimated that in 2025, natural gas semi - trailer tractors will substitute about 127,500 barrels per day of diesel consumption) [13][21] - Traditional fuels and chemical raw materials: Traditional fuels (gasoline and diesel) generally face a slowdown in growth due to the increase in new energy penetration, industrial structure transformation, and energy - efficiency improvement. Chemical raw materials (naphtha, LPG/ethane) are gradually becoming the decisive force supporting the growth of global oil demand [27] Supply Outlook - Geopolitical impact: Geopolitical stability is variable, and periodic disturbances will become the new normal. The conflict between the US and Venezuela hardly reverses the pressure of supply surplus as it has not caused large - scale and continuous supply interruptions, and Venezuela's production accounts for only about 1% of the global total. However, it has pushed up the cost expectation of asphalt raw materials. Sanctions on Iran have tightened rapidly, and its exports are under obvious pressure. The "hidden inventory" in floating storage may exacerbate supply surplus if it enters the market in the future. There is a possibility of deterioration in the regional situation [46][49][55] - Supply - demand balance: According to the balance sheets of EIA, OPEC, and IEA, the average global oil demand in 2025 is 104.33 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 105.50 million barrels per day. The average non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 is 54.82 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 55.77 million barrels per day. The average Call on OPEC+ in 2025 is 41.00 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 41.07 million barrels per day. The average OPEC+ crude oil production in 2025 is 42.56 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 43.15 million barrels per day. The average inventory change (supply - demand) in 2025 is 1.56 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 2.08 million barrels per day [69]