2026年01月13日：期货市场交易指引-20260113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass recommended to sell on rallies [1][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; Aluminum advised to strengthen observation; Nickel advised to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver is expected to be strong; Lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy Chemicals: PVC with a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see temporarily; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Apples are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - Agricultural and Animal Husbandry: Pigs: Near - term contracts to sell on rallies and roll short, far - term contracts to be bullish cautiously; Eggs: Current 02 contract for farmers to wait and sell on rallies for hedging; Corn: Short - term to be cautious of chasing high, grain - holding entities to sell on rallies for hedging; Soybean meal: Near - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, far - term contracts to be treated weakly; Oils: Soybean and palm oil rallies are limited, be cautious of chasing up, rapeseed oil is weak [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading guidance for various futures products in different industries, analyzing the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors of each product, and giving corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Finance - Index Futures: Although the US December non - farm payrolls were disappointing, the unemployment rate dropped, reducing January rate - cut bets. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Geopolitical and precious - metal risks increased. Considering the December PMI returning to expansion and strong expectations of early - year policy support, the market may develop further, but the index may trade sideways. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - long term and buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: The decline momentum of the bond market has attenuated in the short term, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium term. Whether the bond - market pressure has been fully released remains to be seen. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] 2. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory at ports has accumulated, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended for short - term trading [7] - Rebar: The futures price is slightly higher than the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost and slightly lower than the flat - rate electricity cost. The supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - Glass: The short - term price rise is due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, but the fundamental pattern has not changed. It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9] 3. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" stage. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation and supporting factors still exist. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [11] - Aluminum: The weak reality of alumina surplus will continue, and the policy expectation is uncertain. The aluminum price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, and it faces great pressure in January. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: The nickel ore quota is expected to be cut, but the overall nickel market remains in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and it is recommended for range trading [15] - Silver: Due to factors such as the disappointing US non - farm payrolls and interest - rate cut expectations, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious of opening new positions [17] - Gold: Similar to silver, the price is expected to move up in the medium term. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious of chasing high [17] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strong but may decline slightly. It is expected to trade in a range [18] 4. Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering valuation and policies, it is recommended to buy at low levels [19] - Caustic Soda: The short - term has delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the market atmosphere of related commodities. However, the rebound space is limited without production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - Styrene: The current valuation is high, and the overseas gap has been filled. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term and focus on the improvement of cost and supply - demand in the long term [21] - Rubber: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, but the inventory accumulation may slow down. The downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the agricultural and industrial demand has some support, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to trade in a range [23] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by geopolitical and port - arrival factors, the price is expected to trade in a range [24] - Polyolefins: The supply is still abundant, the demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [24] - Soda Ash: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [26] 5. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price has shown high - level fluctuations after a continuous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28] - Apples: The market of late - Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with different trading situations in different regions. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [28] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] 6. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The short - term supply - demand relationship may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the medium - long term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient, limiting the increase. In the medium - long term, the new - laying pressure is not large, but the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell on rallies for hedging [33][34] - Corn: The short - term price is under selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing high in the short term and sell on rallies for hedging [35][36][37] - Soybean Meal: The short - term price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to be long on dips for the near - term contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [38][39] - Oils: The short - term rallies of soybean and palm oil are limited, and rapeseed oil is weak. In the medium - long term, soybean and palm oil may rebound, and rapeseed oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing up for soybean and palm oil and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [39][43][44]