Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term due to weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, geopolitical factors, tight copper mine supply, and high prices suppressing consumption [2][3] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high, driven by the strength of overseas supply - demand and the recovery of domestic downstream start - up rates, despite inventory accumulation pressure [5][6][7] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to stay high due to strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, with relatively average demand [9][10] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital [12][13][14] - Zinc prices are also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a large price increase compared to copper and aluminum, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial situation [15][16] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [17][18][19] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, constrained by inventory pressure but supported by domestic liquidity, and short - term waiting is recommended [20][21] - Carbonate lithium prices may see a "rush - to - export" effect, but rapid increases also bring回调 risks, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [23][24] - Alumina prices are facing multiple difficulties in continuous rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the option of shorting near - term contracts on price rallies [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: LME copper 3M rose 1.59% to $13,172/ton, and SHFE copper main contract was at 103,320 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 20,000 tons [2] - Strategy Viewpoint: Fed rate - cut expectations are weakened, and geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The copper mine supply is tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [3] Aluminum - Market Information: LME aluminum rose 1.33% to $3,191/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract was at 24,630 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [5] - Strategy Viewpoint: The high - level volatility of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has increased, and overseas geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The aluminum price is expected to remain high, with a reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract of 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum 3M of $3,120 - 3,220/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The main AD2603 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 23,340 yuan/ton, and domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory slightly increased [9] - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost - side prices are strong, and there are continuous supply - side disturbances. Prices are expected to remain high [10] Lead - Market Information: SHFE lead index rose 0.48% to 17,464 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,059.5/ton. The lead ingot social inventory increased [12] - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital is intensifying. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [13][14] Zinc - Market Information: SHFE zinc index rose 0.66% to 24,166 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,181.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc price has significant potential for a price increase compared to copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [16] Tin - Market Information: SHFE tin main contract rose 6.92% to 376,920 yuan/ton. The supply situation is complex, with some regions facing different problems, and the inventory decreased [17][18] - Strategy Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - 47,000/ton [19] Nickel - Market Information: SHFE nickel main contract rose 3.67% to 144,200 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rebounded [20] - Strategy Viewpoint: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but domestic liquidity provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - 19,000/ton [21] Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index increased by 10%, and the LC2605 contract price rose [23] - Strategy Viewpoint: The "rush - to - export" effect has raised demand expectations, but rapid price increases bring回调 risks. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 152,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton [24] Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose 0.82% to 2,853 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [26] - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider shorting near - term contracts on price rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan/ton [27] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased [29][30] - Strategy Viewpoint: The stainless - steel price is supported by the optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term [30]
有色金属日报-20260113
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-13 01:08