国新国证期货早报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On January 12, 2026, the A - share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and record - high trading volume. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements influenced by various factors such as market liquidity expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy news [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 12, A - share major indices continued to perform strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive increase, reaching a new high in over a decade. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 4165.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.75% to 14366.91 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.82% to 3388.34 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 36450 billion yuan, a significant increase of nearly 5000 billion yuan from the previous trading day, setting a new record [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on January 12, closing at 4789.92, a rise of 30.99 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke oscillated and sorted on January 12, closing at 1771.6, a rise of 23.8. The market's expectation of loose liquidity increased. After the end of environmental protection, coking operations resumed, and the average profit per ton of coke declined as coal prices stopped falling. The daily average output of hot metal was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons from last week, indicating a bottom - up trend in hot metal demand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal oscillated and strengthened on January 12, closing at 1240.5 yuan, a rise of 50.7. The market's expectation of loose liquidity increased during the week, and the risk appetite significantly improved. The general rise of commodities drove the low - valued black varieties to make up for losses. There was news of eliminating backward production capacity and reducing the output of thermal coal in 2026, which triggered market speculation on policy - based production restrictions. In January, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. There was an expectation of restocking in mid - to late January that had not been fulfilled [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the slight decline of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Monday. At night, due to short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 153.09 million tons, a decrease of 56.73 million tons or 27.03% compared to the same period last year. The global sugar market supply - demand pattern is expected to change from a supply shortage of about 200 million tons in the 2024/25 period to a supply surplus of about 700 million tons in the 2025/26 period [4]. Rubber - Affected by capital, Shanghai rubber oscillated widely, first falling and then rising, closing slightly higher on Monday. At night, due to the increase in the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted. As of January 11, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, an increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62% from the previous period [4][5]. Palm Oil - On January 12, after the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) announced December data with bright export figures, palm oil futures rose rapidly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 8724, a rise of 0.48% from the previous day. In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% month - on - month; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an increase of 8.52% month - on - month; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, a slight decrease from 374,000 tons in the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, with an estimated inventory range of 3 - 3.1 million tons [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 12, CBOT soybeans fell sharply due to a bearish USDA supply - demand report. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US in the 2025/26 period was 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 90 million bushels from December, while export estimates were reduced by 600 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. Domestically, on January 12, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The oil refinery's operating rate continued to recover rapidly this week, and the output of soybean meal was expected to increase. The current inventory of soybean meal in oil refineries was at a relatively high level compared to the same period of the year, and the supply pressure was large. The restart of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further suppressed the upward space of soybean meal prices [5]. Live Hogs - On January 12, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11735 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3%. In the first half of this month, the supply of medium - and large - sized hogs of appropriate weight decreased slightly, and some farmers showed a mentality of reducing supply to support prices, which tightened the market supply in the short term. However, pig enterprises may still advance the slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the subsequent supply pressure remains. The current seasonal consumption such as pickling and sausage - making in China continues, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, and there is a short - term "gap period" [5]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper rose strongly. The main 2602 contract closed at 103800 yuan/ton. The macro - environment saw an increase in the expectation of Fed easing, a weakening US dollar, and geopolitical disturbances, which led to capital flowing into the metal sector. Globally, the supply of copper mines was tight and lacked elasticity, and the demand from new energy and AI provided support. Domestically, downstream consumption was dull before the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulated moderately [5]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14685 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 380 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream yarn mills and textile enterprises purchased as needed [6]. Iron Ore - On January 12, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated and closed higher, with a rise of 0.92% to 822.5 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased month - on - month, the arrival volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills had restocking needs, and the hot metal output continued to rise, so the supply - demand structure improved. In the short term, iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend [6]. Asphalt - On January 12, the main asphalt 2603 contract oscillated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.25% to 3157 yuan. The current asphalt supply remained at a low level, inventory accumulated, and the middle - and downstream procurement was cautious, with a significant decrease in demand. Supported by the crude oil cost, asphalt prices oscillated in the short term [6]. Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772 on Monday, with a minimum of 772, a maximum of 776.5, and closed at 773, with an increase of 47 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 740 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [6][7]. Steel - On January 12, rb2605 closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The rising prices of raw fuels strengthened the cost support for steel prices, and mainstream steel mills' price - supporting measures promoted the rise of steel prices. On the other hand, the demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased, so steel prices may not continue to rise. In the short term, steel prices may first rise and then fall, oscillating within a range [7]. Alumina - On January 12, ao2605 closed at 2866 yuan/ton. The domestic operating capacity of alumina remained at a high level, and there was no sign of long - term production reduction, so the supply surplus pattern continued, and prices were under pressure. Based on the 5 - dollar reduction in the long - term contract price of Guinea's ore in the first quarter, the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan regions would drop to about 2650 yuan/ton. On the consumption side, although the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia had been put into operation, they were in the early stage, and the demand increase was limited [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 12, al2603 closed at 24650 yuan/ton. Domestically, the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1 may trigger the rush - work demand in the domestic photovoltaic industry, which may improve the demand for photovoltaic frames and brackets and support aluminum prices. Fundamentally, the supply side was operating normally, and social inventory continued to accumulate. The demand side showed a cooling trend, with downstream buyers being cautious and traders reducing purchases [7].