双融日报:鑫融讯-20260113
Huaxin Securities·2026-01-13 01:47
- The report introduces the "Huaxin Market Sentiment Temperature Indicator," which is constructed based on six dimensions: index fluctuation, trading volume, number of rising and falling stocks, KDJ indicator, northbound capital, and margin trading data. This indicator is classified as an oscillation indicator, similar to the RSI indicator, and is more suitable for range-bound markets rather than trend prediction. It may experience lagging effects during trending markets, indicating the emergence of trends. When the indicator remains near 80 or above or 20 or below for an extended period, its applicability should be reassessed [19] - The sentiment indicator provides a comprehensive score ranging from "overcool" (0-19), "cool" (20-39), "neutral" (40-59), "warm" (60-79), to "overheat" (80-100). The current sentiment score is 95, indicating an "overheat" market condition. Historical data suggests that when the sentiment score is below or near 60, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may lead to resistance [8][19] - The sentiment indicator is evaluated as a useful tool for high-frequency trading strategies in oscillating markets, offering guidance for high-selling and low-buying opportunities. However, it lacks predictive power for trends and may require adjustments during prolonged extreme sentiment levels [19] - Backtesting results show that the sentiment indicator effectively identifies market conditions, with scores below 60 correlating with market support and scores above 90 correlating with resistance. The current score of 95 aligns with the "overheat" classification [8][19]