国泰君安期货所长早读-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, providing insights into their market trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies. For instance, it mentions that the export tax - rebate policy adjustment will lead to a "rush - to - export" phenomenon in the lithium carbonate and shipping industries, while the US Department of Justice's investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may cause market fluctuations [7][8][150]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment is rising, with the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closing at 1,026.28 yuan, up 1.97% [18]. - Silver: Prices are rising rapidly, with the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closing at 20,957 yuan, up 11.92% [18]. Copper - Spot prices are strengthening, supporting the price. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,800 yuan, up 2.36% [21]. Zinc - The market is oscillating strongly. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,175 yuan, up 0.86% [24]. Lead - A decrease in LME inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan, up 0.46% [27]. Tin - The market is oscillating upwards. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 376,920 yuan, up 6.92% [30]. Aluminum - The market is running strongly. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,650 yuan, up 1.31% [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: Narrow - range oscillation. The platinum futures 2606 contract closed at 622.80 yuan, up 3.83% [38]. - Palladium: Range - bound oscillation. The palladium futures 2606 contract closed at 505.10 yuan, up 1.21% [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 144,200 yuan, up 3.6% [43]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel - iron raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of a "rush - to - export", attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand after a significant price increase. The 2601 contract closed at 146,000 yuan, up 5.0% [48]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical factors, prices are at a one - month high. The front - month ICE Brent contract closed at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 2.18% [79]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: Unilateral high - level oscillation. The PX main contract closed at 7,308 yuan, up 0.97% [76]. - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PTA main contract closed at 5,142 yuan, up 0.67% [76]. - MEG: Low - level rebound, with limited downward valuation space. The MEG main contract closed at 3,880 yuan, up 0.36% [76]. Rubber - Wide - range oscillation. The rubber main contract closed at a price not specified in the report [84]. Synthetic Rubber - Upward pressure is gradually increasing. The butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) closed at 12,070 yuan, up 55 yuan [88]. LLDPE - Some production of standard products is being redirected, and regional spot shortages are being replenished. The L2605 contract closed at 6,737 yuan, up 0.94% [91]. PP - Downstream "rush - to - export" supports propylene, and PP has strong cost support. The PP2605 contract closed at 6,560 yuan, up 0.71% [94]. Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation. The 03 - contract futures price was 2,180 yuan, and the Shandong spot 32 - alkali price was 685 yuan [96]. Pulp - Wide - range oscillation. The pulp main contract (05 contract) closed at 5,490 yuan, down 60 yuan [103]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG605 contract closed at 1,143 yuan, down 0.09% [107]. Methanol - High - level oscillation. The methanol main contract (05 contract) closed at 2,263 yuan, down 10 yuan [111]. Urea - Short - term correction, medium - term strength. The urea main contract (05 contract) closed at 1,783 yuan, up 6 yuan [115]. Styrene - Short - term oscillation. The styrene 2601 contract closed at 6,775 yuan, down 3 yuan [118]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract closed at 1,239 yuan, up 1.31% [123]. LPG - Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The PG2602 contract closed at 4,239 yuan, up 0.43% [127]. Propylene - Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend. The PL2602 contract closed at 5,978 yuan, up 1.10% [127]. PVC - Weak oscillation. The 05 - contract futures price was 4,940 yuan, and the East China spot price was 4,620 yuan [135]. Fuel Oil - The weak trend continues, with support at the bottom. The FU2602 contract closed at 2,501 yuan, down 1.42% [139]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Entered into an oscillatory phase, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market is continuously rebounding. The LU2602 contract closed at 3,040 yuan, down 0.52% [139]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil - The upward momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly within a range. The soybean oil main contract closed at 7,994 yuan, unchanged [172]. Palm Oil - After a negative report was released, the rebound in crude oil prices boosted the price of palm oil. The palm oil main contract closed at 8,724 yuan, up 0.48% [172]. Bean Meal - The USDA report is bearish, and the price may follow the decline of US soybeans. The DCE bean - meal 2605 contract closed at 2,790 yuan, up 0.14% [180]. Bean One - Affected by the USDA report, the price may adjust and oscillate. The DCE bean - one 2605 contract closed at 4,356 yuan, down 0.55% [180]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The C2603 contract closed at 2,290 yuan, up 1.19% [184]. Sugar - Range consolidation. The futures main - contract price was 5,285 yuan, down 3 yuan [187]. Cotton - Continued adjustment. The CF2605 contract closed at 14,625 yuan, down 0.34% [192]. Eggs - Spot trading is profitable, but the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening. The egg 2602 contract closed at 2,996 yuan, up 0.23% [198]. Hogs - There is negative feedback in demand, and supply is expected to increase. The hog 2603 contract closed at 11,770 yuan, up 50 yuan [201]. Peanuts - Oscillatory operation. The PK603 contract closed at 7,868 yuan, down 1.67% [204]. Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Pay attention to the cabin - opening guidance; lightly short the 04 contract. The EC2602 contract closed at 1,748.0 points, up 1.03%, and the EC2604 contract closed at 1,280.8 points, up 11.3% [141][150].