国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][6]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: For silicon ferroalloy, the commodity market sentiment remains strong, and the futures market fluctuates widely; for manganese ferroalloy, overseas mining companies have raised their quotes, and the futures market also fluctuates widely [2][11]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Due to event fermentation, they are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15]. - Logs: The market fluctuates repeatedly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Product Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.98% from the previous day. Among imported ores, the price of Carajas fines (65%) rose 5 yuan to 911 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines (61.5%) rose 3 yuan to 829 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. - News: In December 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.8% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60%. The HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.55%. According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.82 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1 ton, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 21.77 tons, while the apparent demand decreased by 44.2 tons [6][7]. - News: In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.07 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a 11.0% decrease from the previous period [7]. Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy - Fundamentals: The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract closed at 5,698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract closed at 5,930 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia rose 50 yuan to 5,350 yuan/ton [11]. - News: On January 12, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi decreased by 25 yuan/ton. Jupiter, South32, and other companies raised their manganese ore quotes for February 2026 [12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,238 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan or 3.6%. The J2605 contract of coke closed at 1,770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Lvliang low - sulfur primary coking coal rose 52 yuan to 1,455 yuan/ton [15]. - News: On January 12, the CCI metallurgical coal index of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal rose 30 yuan to 1,260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises in Ordos will increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from January 15 [15]. Logs - Fundamentals: The 2603 contract of logs closed at 774.5 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The trading volume of the 2603 contract decreased by 28.3%. The spot - 2603 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 3% [21]. - News: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than 51.2 in November, indicating a further increase in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23].