高盛-研究深度解析-大型软件股启动

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for major software companies like Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, and ServiceNow for 2026, driven by AI's potential to boost global GDP by $4.5 trillion, with software companies capturing 10% to 25% of the value created for end customers [2]. Core Insights - The AI application market is projected to reach approximately $450 billion, providing growth momentum for the industry, although competition may offset some benefits [1][2]. - Existing SaaS leaders such as Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow are expected to maintain significant positions in the enterprise software landscape through 2030, necessitating platform restructuring and product integration to enhance user adoption and monetization [1][4][5]. - The period from 2026 to 2031 is anticipated to be a golden era for AI enterprise applications, requiring companies to integrate workflows, break down data silos, and meet compliance and security standards [1][6]. - Long-term investment in software companies should focus on their self-innovation capabilities and the construction of intellectual property moats, alongside market adaptability and unit economics [1][7]. Summary by Sections AI Market Potential - The AI market is expected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of $450 billion, driven by increased adoption rates and improved competitive dynamics [1][2]. Major Software Companies - Companies like Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow are positioned to lead in the AI-driven enterprise software market, requiring them to innovate and integrate their offerings effectively [4][5][8]. Emerging Opportunities - New entrants such as Sierra and Writer are highlighted as potential disruptors in the software industry, indicating that opportunities still exist despite the maturity of the tech sector [5]. Investment Considerations - When selecting software stocks for long-term investment, factors such as self-innovation, core technology moats, market fit, and unit economics are crucial [7]. - ServiceNow and Oracle are identified as companies with significant value discovery potential, supported by their strategic positioning and operational capabilities [8]. Security Software Sector - Leading security software platforms like CrowdStrike, CloudFlare, and Palo Alto Networks are expected to thrive due to the essential nature of security in digital transformation, presenting multiple growth pathways [9].