西部证券晨会纪要-20260113

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report indicates that Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares in 2025, but face challenges in the second half due to a stronger US dollar, slowing southbound capital inflows, and deteriorating fundamentals [2] - In 2026, three factors are expected to drive a rebound in Hong Kong stocks: a weaker US dollar, appreciation of the RMB attracting overseas Chinese capital, and a recovery in China's economic fundamentals due to inflation and potential debt restructuring policies [2][4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks have greater elasticity compared to A-shares due to the absence of trading limits and capital flow restrictions, with international capital being the most significant influence on pricing [4] - The anticipated weakening of the US dollar in 2026 is expected to drive international capital to allocate more towards Hong Kong stocks, as the dollar's strength in the latter half of 2025 may have caused relative weakness in Hong Kong stocks [4] - The inflow of Chinese capital into Hong Kong stocks is expected to diversify beyond just southbound funds, with a significant amount of capital currently overseas likely to invest in Hong Kong, benefiting from RMB appreciation [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - HanShuo Technology (301275.SZ) is set to begin mass production of its smart shopping carts, marking a significant advancement in AI-driven retail digitalization [7] - The partnership with Woolworths, a leading Australian retailer, aims to enhance customer shopping experiences and operational efficiency through innovative technology solutions [8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.056 billion, 4.787 billion, and 5.747 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating based on its growth potential in retail digitalization [8]