棕榈油：报告利空落地，原油反弹推涨油脂，豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the kinetic energy of US soybeans is limited, and the soybean oil market will mainly operate within a certain range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are presented. For example, the closing price of palm oil (day session) is 8,724 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the closing price of soybean oil (day session) is 7,994 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open - interest changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures is 512,074 lots, with an increase of 145,968 lots [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of palm oil (24 - degree in Guangdong), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong, and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi, along with their price changes, are given. For example, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, as well as various spreads such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, are presented [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil: From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month. The yield decreased by 20.49% during this period, and the inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3][5]. - Global Soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production increased by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons. As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6% [5]. - US Soybean and Soybean Oil: The 2025/2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 100,000 acres, and the soybean production is expected to increase by 9 million bushels. The US soybean oil production is expected to decrease by 210 million pounds, and the ending inventory is expected to increase by 26 million pounds [6][7]. - Brazilian Soybeans: As of last Thursday, the harvesting rate of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.6%, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 1 [9].