棉花：延续调整态势20260113

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The cotton market continues to adjust. The prices of cotton futures and spot show certain fluctuations, and the market sentiment is still cautious [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,625 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 14,685 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,640 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.24%, and the night - session closing price was 20,710 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.34%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.94 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.71%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 794,361 lots, an increase of 147,503 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,176,485 lots, a decrease of 24,391 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 9,257 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 16,185 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,768, an increase of 380, and the effective forecast was 2,194, a decrease of 105. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 40, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 3 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.32%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan, a decline of 0.32%. The price in Shandong was 15,934 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99 yuan, a decline of 0.62%. The price in Hebei was 15,827 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. The 3128B index was 15,857 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan, a decline of 0.46%. The international cotton index M was 72.46 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan, a decline of 0.11% [1] - Spread Data: The CF3 - 5 spread was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading volume increased slightly. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, spinning mills' point - price trading was active. The spot fixed - price and basis quotes were basically the same, and the basis quotes were relatively stable. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 800 and above, and the basis quotes in the 800 - 850 range decreased [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline, and the market trading was average. Recently, the orders of low - count yarns of some spinning mills had a phased recovery, but the overall order volume was still limited, and there was no continuous large - scale market. The market sentiment was still cautious. In the actual sales process, traders increased the negotiation space and the preferential concession to promote sales [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures rose yesterday, mainly affected by the weakening of the US dollar and the increase in Chinese cotton prices. The USDA lowered the production and ending stocks of US cotton in the 2025/26 season in the monthly supply - demand report, but the report did not push the ICE cotton futures to rise further, as the market mainly focused on the export prospects of US cotton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the range of [-2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]