宁证期货今日早评-20260113

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Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have driven up crude oil prices, with the Iranian situation worsening and short - term sentiment premiums likely to continue [2]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence due to the investigation of Powell have led to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [2]. - Steel prices may first rise and then fall, showing a range - bound trend due to cost support and weakening demand [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and demand support [4]. - The supply - demand structure of coke may tighten, and the futures price will follow coking coal and fluctuate [5]. - Hog prices will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and sow culling [5]. - Palm oil prices are supported by improved exports and lower production in January, but are suppressed by inventory accumulation [6]. - Spot prices of soybean meal have increased, but the upside is limited due to high inventory levels, and the 05 contract is in a shock - consolidation phase [6]. - Tightening of the capital market is negative for the bond market, and the volatility of treasury bonds has increased [7]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and monetary easing expectations, but the upward momentum needs attention [7]. - PX is in an adjustment phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Natural rubber prices will show a wide - range fluctuation [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - PVC prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [12]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term [13]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - In December 2025, Iran's daily crude oil export volume decreased by 100,000 barrels, and daily production decreased from nearly 4 million barrels in September to 3.24 million barrels in December due to US sanctions. Venezuela's daily crude oil supply decreased by 70,000 barrels in December 2025, and the impact is expected to intensify in January 2026 [2]. Gold - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - On January 12, domestic steel prices rose slightly. The price of billets in Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar increased by 5 yuan to 3342 yuan/ton. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand may limit the upward trend [4]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 162.7526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.0437 million tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 1.94 tons to 3.2327 million tons, and the number of ships in port increased by 11 to 116 [4]. Coke - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.69%, an increase of 0.97%. Daily coke production was 635,700 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. Coke inventory decreased by 55,300 tons to 860,700 tons, and coking coal inventory increased by 191,800 tons to 10.7168 million tons [5]. Hog - On January 12, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.83 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from last Friday. Egg prices increased by 0.8% to 7.61 yuan/kg. Hog prices showed mixed trends, and the price will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games [5]. Palm Oil - In December, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 319,700 tons, and exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons. The January export situation has improved [6]. Soybean Meal - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,700 tons (0.40%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.0856 million tons (17.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 126,200 tons (10.78%) and a year - on - year increase of 439,400 tons (72.68%) [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased. The overnight rate increased by 4.4BP to 1.316%, the 7 - day rate increased by 1.2BP to 1.473%, the 14 - day rate increased by 0.2BP to 1.489%, and the 1 - month rate decreased by 0.1BP to 1.556% [7]. Silver - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and a rise in silver prices [7]. PTA - The domestic PX load was 90.9% (+0.3%), and the Asian PX load was 81.3% (+0.4%). Some domestic factories increased short - process production, and some overseas devices restarted. PX supply remains high in January [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 57 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, US tire imports increased by 5.4% year - on - year [9]. Aluminum - On January 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan was 24,390 yuan/ton, a single - day increase of 290 yuan/ton. The high price and high basis have led to strong selling intentions of holders, but weak downstream purchasing [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,239 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Factory inventory increased by 11.67% to 1.5727 million tons. The float glass operating rate decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.03%, and the average price increased by 7 yuan to 1,083 yuan/ton. Glass inventory decreased by 2.37% to 55.518 million weight boxes [11]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 PVC was 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04%. Social inventory increased by 3.48% to 1.1141 million tons. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC producers was - 634 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers was - 192 yuan/ton [12]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The 500,000 - ton/year methanol device of Jiuyuan Chemical is expected to end maintenance this week. Downstream capacity utilization decreased by 0.49% to 73.54%. Port inventory increased by 40,800 tons to 1.5372 million tons, and production enterprise inventory increased by 25,100 tons to 447,700 tons [13].