山金期货黑色板块日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black market is in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak. The winter storage still takes some time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline affects market sentiment [2] - For iron ore, the current market is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price. A medium - level upward trend is unfolding [3] Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. The steel mill output may continue to decline in the off - season [2] - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - Data: - Prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and the spot prices also showed an upward trend [2] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed, and the spreads between different futures contracts also changed [2] - Other Prices: The prices of wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils changed slightly, while the price of Tangshan billets decreased and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel increased slightly [2] - Production: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased, the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased, the output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of electric - arc furnace steel mill threaded rods increased significantly [2] - Inventory: The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties and threaded rods increased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased significantly [2] - Trading Volume: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume decreased, and the weekly wire and screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai increased significantly [2] - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties and threaded rods decreased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [2] - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts for threaded rods decreased, and that for hot - rolled coils increased [2] II. Iron Ore - Demand and Supply: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. The iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The global shipment decreased, and the increasing port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3] - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [3] - Data: - Prices: The settlement prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts increased, and the prices of different iron ore varieties in ports also increased [4] - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads between different iron ore futures contracts changed [4] - Shipment and Freight: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, and the BCI freight rates and exchange rates changed [4] - Arrival and Port Inventory: The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume decreased, and the total port inventory and port trade ore inventory increased, while the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased [4] - Domestic Production: The iron - concentrate output of national sample mines increased [4] - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased [4] III. Industry News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the reference standard for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standard [6] - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at the northern six ports decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased [6] - The online auction non - delivery rate of coking coal decreased last week, and the auction prices mostly declined [6] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12th, expected to be lifted around January 17th [7]