PP：下游抢出口支撑丙烯，PP成本支撑偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream's rush to export supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong [1] - The overall fundamental support for PP at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH units under the deep - loss of PDH profits [2] 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6560, with a daily increase of 0.71%, trading volume of 602441, and a decrease of 614 in positions [1] - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was - 180 (compared to - 214 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 47 (compared to - 49 the day before) [1] - Important Spot Prices: In North China, the spot price was 6280 yuan/ton yesterday (6250 yuan/ton the day before); in East China, it was 6380 yuan/ton (6300 yuan/ton the day before); in South China, it was 6400 yuan/ton (6360 yuan/ton the day before) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The spot sales are tightened, and traders have a strong willingness to hold prices. The prices of some scarce grades have increased slightly. The year - end demand is difficult to be sustainable, the continuity of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The US dollar price of PP is stable, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and the downstream continues to make rigid purchases with little improvement in trading [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices are strong, and there is a valuation differentiation within olefins. The internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE are higher than those of PP [2] - Supply Side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - Demand Side: The follow - up of new downstream orders weakens, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]