早间评论-20260113
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2026-01-13 01:50
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still to be strengthened, with the current national debt yield at a relatively low level. The national debt futures are expected to face certain pressure, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low - level domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, and central bank gold - buying supports its price. But due to the significant recent rise in precious metals and the heating up of speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [11][12]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, in the medium - term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may continue the weak shock. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures have rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues. But considering the limited downward space of costs and the reduction of short - term supply, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20]. - The INE crude oil has risen significantly. With geopolitical factors and changes in supply - demand data, the crude oil price is expected to continue rising. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main crude oil contract [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil price is affected by multiple factors. With the increase in crude oil prices, it is expected to strengthen. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - The demand in different segments of polyolefin products is uneven, showing a more prominent differentiation pattern. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long [27][28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be mainly in a strong shock, and investors should pay attention to factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [29][30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31][32]. - The PVC market may be in a strong shock in the short - term due to policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term. However, the uncertainty of the demand side should be vigilant [33][36]. - The urea price is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37][38]. - The PX market may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with stable spreads and profits, and support from rising crude oil prices. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations [39][40]. - The PTA market may be in a shock operation in the short - term. The processing fee has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation has changed little. The long - term supply - demand expectation is good, and investors can consider cautious operation on pullbacks [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to have an increase in supply and pressure on port inventory. It may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment, and investors are advised to wait and see carefully [42][43]. - The short - fiber market may follow the raw material price in shock operation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory. The low inventory may provide bottom support [44]. - The bottle - chip market may follow the cost side in shock operation. There is an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate is increasing. However, the raw material price is uncertain, and investors should participate cautiously on pullbacks [45][46]. - The soda ash market shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to operate within a range in the short - term [47]. - The glass market has limited improvement in fundamentals, and the profit is low. However, the main 05 contract corresponds to the traditional real - estate peak season, and investors should pay attention to the short - term driving force from real - estate policies [48][49]. - The caustic soda market shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can operate within a range [50]. - The pulp market has no substantial improvement in supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price may return to the spot price, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [51]. - The lithium carbonate market may be in a strong shock, with a pattern of strong supply and demand, and a reduction in social inventory. External geopolitical factors also support the price [52][53]. - The copper market may be in a high - level shock, with long - term supply concerns supporting the price, but high prices suppressing short - term consumption [54][55]. - The aluminum market may be in a high - level adjustment. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56][58]. - The zinc market may be in a shock adjustment. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59][60]. - The lead market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory, continuing the range - bound shock [61][62]. - The tin market is expected to be strong, with tight supply and certain resilience in demand, and a reduction in refined tin inventory [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory. Although the cost may rise, the real consumption is not optimistic, and investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving. Investors can consider long positions in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long positions in low - level call options for soybean oil [66][67][68]. - The palm oil market may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69][71]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil, depending on the change in import policies [72][73]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report, tight supply expectations, and resilient demand. Investors can go long in batches on pullbacks [74][76][77]. - The upward space of the sugar price is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78][80][81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82][84][85]. - The pig price is facing supply pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [86][88]. - For eggs, the supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Considering the low valuation of off - season contracts, investors can consider positive spread strategies [89][90]. - The corn and corn starch market: The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [91][92][93]. - The log market is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94][95]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the national debt futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. 3.2 Equity 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The number of new margin trading accounts in 2025 reached a record high. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the market sentiment is warming up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to move up [8][9]. 3.3 Commodities 3.3.1 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold - buying supports the price. However, due to strong speculative sentiment, the market may be volatile [11]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: On the previous trading day, they rebounded slightly. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may be in a weak shock [13]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, it fluctuated at a high level. The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, they rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing [18]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The overall over - supply pressure continues, but short - term supply may decrease [20]. - Copper: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper futures rose. Long - term supply concerns support the price, but high prices suppress short - term consumption [54]. - Aluminum: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, while the alumina futures fell. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56]. - Zinc: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures rose. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59]. - Lead: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead futures fell slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory [61]. - Tin: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin futures rose sharply. The supply is tight, and demand has certain resilience [63]. - Nickel: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures fell slightly. The market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory [65]. 3.3.3 Energy - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, the INE crude oil rose significantly. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand data changes may drive the price up [21]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, it fell significantly. Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to strengthen with the increase in crude oil prices [24][25]. 3.3.4 Chemicals - Polyolefins: The market sentiment is boosted, and the demand in different segments is uneven [27]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to be in a strong shock, and factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand should be noted [29]. - Natural Rubber: The futures rose. It is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31]. - PVC: The futures rose. It may be in a strong shock in the short - term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term [33]. - Urea: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - PX: The futures rose. It may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with support from rising crude oil prices [39]. - PTA: The futures rose. It may be in a shock operation in the short - term, with a rebound in processing fees and little change in supply - demand [41]. - Ethylene Glycol: The futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and port inventory is under pressure [42]. - Short - Fiber: The futures rose slightly. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory [44]. - Bottle - Chip: The futures rose. It may follow the cost side in shock operation, with an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival [45]. - Soda Ash: The futures rose. It shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited [47]. - Glass: The futures fell slightly. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the profit is low [48]. - Caustic Soda: The futures fell. It shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit [50]. - Pulp: The futures fell. The supply - demand fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The futures rose slightly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving [66]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil rose. It may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed fell. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread depending on the change in import policies [72]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton futures recovered after reaching a low point. The price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report [74]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were in a weak shock. The upward space is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78]. - Apple: The domestic apple futures fluctuated. The price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82]. - Pig: The national average pig price rose slightly. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see [86]. - Egg: The egg price rose. The supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Positive spread strategies can be considered [89]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The futures rose. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival [91]. - Log: The futures fell slightly. It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94].
早间评论-20260113 - Reportify