碳酸锂：抢出口预期驱动，关注大幅上涨后终端需求变化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, tracking its fundamental data and presenting macro - and industry - related news. It mentions that the price of lithium carbonate has shown significant changes, and there is a situation of expected export rush, with attention needed on the changes in terminal demand after the sharp price increase [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Contracts: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 146,000 yuan, the trading volume is 50, and the open interest is 2,351. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 156,060 yuan, the trading volume is 68,491, and the open interest is 506,702. There are also data on price changes compared to different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.) [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt volume is 25,970 hands, with an increase of 610 compared to the previous day [1]. - Basis: The basis between spot and 2601 contract is 6,000 yuan, and between spot and 2605 contract is - 4,060 yuan. The basis between 2601 - 2605 is - 10,060 yuan [1]. - Raw Materials: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,980 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,640 yuan [1]. - Lithium Salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,000 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 148,500 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 147,300 yuan, etc. There are also prices for CIF products and other related lithium - salt products [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 152,463 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13,621 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 148,500 yuan/ton, both increasing by 12,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - On January 12, 2026, Yichun Mining conducted a lithium mica concentrate auction. The grade of lithium mica concentrate was 2.5%, the quantity was 3,000 tons, and the transaction price was 6,150 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3].