综合晨报-20260113

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in Q1 2026 [2] Precious Metals - International gold and silver hit new highs. Geopolitical chaos and concerns about the Fed's independence make precious metals easy to rise and hard to fall [3] Copper - Overnight copper prices rose. Sentiment from Powell's possible prosecution and market spread logistics support copper prices. A previous option strategy can still be held [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum briefly broke through 25,000 yuan and then fell. It's important to see if it can stabilize above 24,800 yuan. Aluminum producers can consider selling hedging [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It follows aluminum price fluctuations passively. Scrap aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than usual [6] Alumina - Domestic operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with a significant surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures face resistance at 3,000 yuan [7] Zinc - Domestic and imported ore TC are low. Supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. Consumption is picking up after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate between 23,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Bullish sentiment is strong in the Shanghai lead market. The cost of recycled lead is rising, providing support. It is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is active. Stainless steel production is expected to increase in January. The short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10] Tin - Overnight, Shanghai tin continued to rise. The market gives high premiums to semiconductor consumption and geopolitics. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11] Lithium Carbonate - It hit the daily limit again. Demand is expected to surge in Q1. The inventory situation is complex, and the futures price is strong but with high short - term uncertainty [12] Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate. Consider short - selling if it breaks through 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - The cancellation of export tax rebates boosts short - term demand, but the market sentiment is weak. The price is seeking cost support [14] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices were weak at night. Demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and inventory is changing. Iron ore supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both are expected to fluctuate [15][16] Coke and Coking Coal - Both prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season [17][18] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon prices fell. The manganese ore inventory has a structural problem. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and demand has some resilience. Both suggest buying on dips [19][20] Group 2: Chemicals Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The cancellation of export tax rebates may stimulate pre - shipment. The impact on spot freight rates needs further observation [21] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows crude oil. Geopolitical risks affect high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur supply is expected to increase [22] Asphalt - Crude oil rebounds, but asphalt futures are weak. Pay attention to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] Urea - The futures price is firm. Production is increasing, and demand is picking up. The price may decline slightly in the short - term [24] Methanol - Overseas supply is low, and domestic production is high. Demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increase is weakening [25] Pure Benzene - Import is sufficient, and the port inventory is high. It is affected by oil prices in the short - term and has difficulty in de - stocking in the long - term [26] Styrene - Crude oil price increase supports the cost. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is rising [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is supported. Polyethylene has cost support, and polypropylene has reduced production due to more maintenance [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak. It may have export - driven arbitrage opportunities. Caustic soda is weak, and the industry may face profit compression [29] PX and PTA - Polyester demand will decline, but oil price rebound provides support. PX has a strong long - term expectation, and PTA's processing margin is moderately repaired [30] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is under pressure in the short - term and may improve in Q2 [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - chip demand is turning weak. Both follow raw material prices [32] Group 3: Building Materials Glass - It is weak. Supply is shrinking, and demand is insufficient. Consider buying on dips after a long - term decline [33] Rubber - Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Demand is slowly recovering. The strategy is to go long on natural rubber and wait and see on butadiene rubber [34] Soda Ash - It is weak. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [35] Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybeans, Bean Meal, and Bean Oil - USDA data shows an increase in soybean supply. Bean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by supply, policy, and weather [36][37] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The US Department of Agriculture report is bearish on rapeseed. The market expects the improvement of China - Canada relations to put pressure on rapeseed prices [38] Domestic Soybeans - Spot prices are rising. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. Pay attention to policies and the spot market [39] Corn - Northeast spot prices are firm. US corn prices fell after the USDA report. Dalian corn futures are expected to fluctuate widely [40] Livestock and Poultry - Pig prices are oscillating. Supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and a second bottom is possible in the medium - long term. Egg prices may strengthen in H1 2026 due to supply and demand changes [41][42] Cotton - US cotton prices are strong due to reduced production. Zhengzhou cotton is adjusting. Demand is stable in the off - season [43] Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar may rebound weakly due to production expectations [44] Apples - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The market focuses on demand, and the high price and poor quality may affect inventory clearance [45] Wood and Pulp - Wood prices are low. Supply and demand are weak, and low inventory provides some support. Pulp prices are limited by weak demand, and inventory is increasing [46][47] Group 5: Financial Products Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive rise. A - share trading volume hit a record high. The stock index futures are expected to be strong [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose on January 12. A bull - flattening trend between 10 - 30Y is expected [48]