商品普涨，有色银光

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Rubber, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon [6] - Bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Apple, Container Shipping European Line [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread gains, with precious metals, shipping futures, new energy materials, and base metals rising significantly. The rebound of precious metals is supported by a loose liquidity environment, and the long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue. Silver and platinum prices are expected to rise due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps. The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by factors such as supply - side reform, policy support, and overseas capital inflows. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short term and has upward potential in the long term [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus International News - On the afternoon of January 12, local time, Trump stated that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran was ready for all possibilities [9] Domestic News - Four departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a work plan to clarify the layout and investment direction of government investment funds, aiming to support major strategies and emerging industries [10] Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement actions to revitalize traditional industries, promote the "AI +" initiative, and develop emerging industries, focusing on areas such as quantum technology and 6G [11][12] 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose slightly. The US dollar index declined. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, and London silver prices increased, while ICE 11 - sugar, CBOT soybeans, and other commodities had different degrees of decline [13] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: The stock market has been rising since 2026, driven by four factors. It is expected that supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive resource - related stocks. The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend [14] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds rose slightly, but the overall price is weak due to factors such as increased market risk appetite, rising US bond yields, and expected economic recovery [15][16] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell slightly at night. There are differences between the US government's stance on South American oil and the Senate's resolution [17] - Methanol: Methanol fell at night. The overall supply - demand pattern is stable, but the supply of Iranian sources is a major concern [18] - Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, with weak supply - side elasticity and stable demand for all - steel tires [19] - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations, and the rise in international crude oil prices supports the cost [20] - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures were consolidating, and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass supply - demand is gradually being repaired, while soda ash has inventory digestion pressure [21] Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals continued to rise at night. The long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise [22] - Copper: Copper prices fell at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the short - term price is more affected by market sentiment [23] - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [24] - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose and hit a new high. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the long - term low - inventory and supply - restricted narrative provides support [25][26] - Carbonate Lithium: The main contract of carbonate lithium hit the daily limit. The price is expected to be strong in the short term and has upward potential in the long term [27] Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - water production, and downstream replenishment [28] - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices oscillated. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [29] - Steel: Steel prices oscillated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the overall commodity atmosphere has improved [30] Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated and rose. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the resumption of domestic soybean auctions may put pressure on prices [31][32] - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were strong at night. Palm oil data had a neutral impact, soybean oil prices may be supported, and rapeseed oil is expected to be weak [33] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. Internationally, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar is easing; domestically, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the price may oscillate [34] - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. There are risks from the macro environment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [35] Shipping Index - Container Shipping European Line: The EC contract rose. The freight rate may enter a downward channel before the Spring Festival, and the 04 contract may oscillate [36][37]