对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市PTA：多PX空PTA MEG：低位反弹，估值下方空间有限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral high-level volatile market, long PX and short PTA, trend strength 1 [1][7] - PTA: Long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PTA, trend strength 1 [1][8] - MEG: Low-level rebound, limited downside in valuation, short positions to exit, trend strength 1 [1][9] 2. Core Views - PX is expected to be unilaterally strong in the short - term due to cost support from oil prices and increasing market attention, despite increasing supply and decreasing demand [7] - PTA is expected to be unilaterally strong in the short - term as current low inventory and ongoing de - stocking offset the expected future decline in demand [8] - MEG is expected to have a short - term strong rebound as supply pressure eases and there is strong support at the 3600 yuan/ton level [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha fell at the end of the session. PX prices rose, with two March Asian spot transactions at 899.5 and 898.5 respectively. The PX valuation was 897 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars from last Friday. Asian PX prices got new support from the rising oil prices on January 12 [3] - Crude oil: On January 12, Asian - session crude oil prices remained at a one - month high due to potential supply disruptions. The front - month ICE Brent contract rose 2.18% to 63.34 dollars/barrel, and the NYMEX front - month contract rose 2.35% to 59.12 dollars/barrel [5] - PTA: The PTA load rose from around 73% to around 78% recently, but is expected to return to around 73% in mid - January due to maintenance plans [6] - MEG: The port inventory of MEG in some main ports in East China was about 80.2 tons, up 7.7 tons from the previous period. The daily shipments from some warehouses were around 6500 - 6600 tons [6][7] - Polyester: The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were individually strong, with an estimated average sales rate of about 70% by 3:45 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fibers was 87% by 3:00 pm [7] Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, and SC futures prices rose, with increases of 0.97%, 0.67%, and 1.11% respectively. MEG futures rose 0.36%, while PF futures fell 0.03% [2] - Spot: PX, PTA, MEG, and naphtha spot prices rose, while Dated Brent crude oil prices fell slightly. The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, and short - fiber processing fee decreased, while the bottle - chip processing fee increased [2] Views and Suggestions - PX: Unilaterally strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads, long PX and short PTA. Although supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, cost support and market attention keep it strong [7] - PTA: Unilaterally strong in the short - term. Long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PTA. Future supply and demand are both expected to be weak, but current low inventory supports the price [8] - MEG: Unilaterally strong in the short - term for a rebound. Exit short positions as supply pressure eases and there is valuation support [9]