国债期货日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The treasury bond futures market rose across the board on January 8, 2026, continuing the recent oscillating upward trend. The long - term varieties had significantly higher gains than the short - term ones, reflecting the market's optimistic sentiment towards the easing of monetary policy and the decline of long - term interest rates. The market is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern, but the performance of different - term varieties may continue to diverge [2][5] Summary by Directory Market Overview - On January 8, 2026, the treasury bond futures market rose across the board with a steepening trend. The 30 - year treasury bond futures were particularly strong, with the main contract rising 0.37%. The 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively. The 30 - year contract's trading volume reached 124,227 lots, a recent high [2] Analysis of Each Variety's Market Trend - 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures: The main contract opened at 102.35 yuan, fluctuated between 102.324 - 102.368 yuan, and closed at 102.358 yuan, up 0.02%. The trading volume was 38,830 lots, the holding volume was 68,972 lots (down 889 lots from the previous trading day), and the total holding volume was 75,192 lots (down 201 lots) [2] - 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures: The main contract opened at 105.535 yuan, with the highest at 105.615 yuan and the lowest at 105.5 yuan, closing at 105.6 yuan, up 0.09%. The trading volume was 69,446 lots, the holding volume was 145,240 lots (down 4,357 lots), and the total holding volume was 165,323 lots (down 3,421 lots) [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures: The main contract opened at 107.67 yuan, oscillated upward throughout the day, with the highest at 107.8 yuan and the lowest at 107.625 yuan, closing at 107.79 yuan, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 75,784 lots, and the holding volume was 247,814 lots (up 3,740 lots) [3] - 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures: The current - quarter continuous contract opened at 110.61 yuan, with the highest at 111.05 yuan, closing at 111.0 yuan, up 0.37%. The trading volume was 124,227 lots, and the holding volume was 152,672 lots. The price showed a V - shaped reversal [4] Influencing Factors - Monetary Policy: The central bank conducted 9.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a winning bid rate of 1.40% (unchanged from before) and 110 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations for equal - volume renewal, which maintained a good capital environment for the bond market [4] - Macro - policy Orientation: The central bank's 2026 work conference stated to continue the moderately loose monetary policy, which strengthened the market's expectation of future monetary policy easing and the decline of long - term interest rates [4] - Funding Situation: The inter - bank market liquidity remained abundant. Most short - term Shibor varieties rose but remained at a low level, which reduced the volatility of short - term treasury bond futures [5] Short - term Outlook - The treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern, but the performance of different - term varieties may continue to diverge. Key factors to focus on include the central bank's future use of monetary policy tools, the strength of January's credit "good start", January's inflation data, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield trend [5][6]