20260113申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued the rebound trend, and the rebound trend in the future market will continue, but the speed may slow down [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts), the previous day's closing prices were 6506, 6737, 6772 respectively, with price increases of 81, 63, 57 and increases of 1.26%, 0.94%, 0.85% respectively. The trading volumes were 531, 500823, 35734, and the open interests were 7553, 490780, 43396 with changes of - 156, - 509, 1050 respectively [2] - For PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts), the previous day's closing prices were 6340, 6560, 6607 respectively, with price increases of 38, 46, 44 and increases of 0.60%, 0.71%, 0.67% respectively. The trading volumes were 492, 501126, 42288, and the open interests were 3303, 502710, 88908 with changes of - 50, - 614, 5473 respectively [2] - For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month were - 231, - 35, 266 respectively, compared with previous values of - 249, - 41, 290. For PP, the current spreads were - 220, - 47, 267 respectively, compared with previous values of - 212, - 49, 261 [2] Raw Material & Spot Market - In the upstream and downstream of raw materials, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2220 yuan/ton, 5935 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6340 yuan/ton, 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 2161 yuan/ton, 5880 yuan/ton, 586 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6290 yuan/ton, 8700 yuan/ton [2] - In the middle - stream of the spot market, the current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, same as the previous values. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, same as the previous values [2] News - On Monday (January 12), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.50 per barrel, the highest since December 5, 2025, up $0.38 or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.45 - $59.91. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.87 per barrel, the highest since November 18, 2025, up $0.53 or 0.84% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.76 - $64.33 [2] Comment and Strategy - In the spot market, for linear LL, some prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were raised by 50. For拉丝PP, some prices of Sinopec were raised by 50, and PetroChina's prices remained stable. Fundamentally, the market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the transmission of the macro - economy to commodities has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices over the weekend continued to support chemical products at the cost end [2]