2026/1/13星期二：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. Currently, the market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of the effects of various policies, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4789.40, 4780.60, 4774.00, and 4735.20 respectively, with increases of 31.80, 34.40, 34.00, and 39.60. The trading volumes were 38339.00, 9202.00, 89188.00, and 19363.00, and the changes in open interest were - 2278.00, 2742.00, 249.00, and 2042.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 3141.80, 3139.40, 3140.20, and 3133.40 respectively, with increases of 10.80, 9.40, 9.20, and 12.20. The trading volumes were 12654.00, 2301.00, 33564.00, and 5526.00, and the changes in open interest were - 1266.00, 179.00, - 303.00, and 292.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8273.80, 8258.20, 8236.60, and 8083.40 respectively, with increases of 206.20, 224.20, 231.40, and 248.80. The trading volumes were 44368.00, 12805.00, 114590.00, and 31591.00, and the changes in open interest were - 6659.00, 2512.00, - 6868.00, and 3355.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8395.20, 8354.40, 8311.40, and 8104.80 respectively, with increases of 263.00, 285.20, 300.40, and 317.20. The trading volumes were 63127.00, 19752.00, 172951.00, and 42733.00, and the changes in open interest were - 4313.00, 5319.00, 4629.00, and 4004.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 8.80, - 2.40, - 15.60, and - 40.80 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 11.60, - 0.20, - 30.00, and - 61.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 4789.92, 3143.74, 8249.13, and 8357.01 respectively, with increases of 0.65%, 0.30%, 2.39%, and 2.80% [1] - Industry Performance: Among different industries, the energy industry decreased by 0.97%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries increased by 0.21%, 0.19%, and - 0.39% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries increased by 0.49%, 0.49%, 0.17%, and 1.91% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries increased by 2.57% and 0.52% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The basis of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next against the CSI 300 index were - 0.52, - 9.32, - 15.92, and - 54.72 respectively, compared to the previous values of 5.88, - 5.72, - 15.12, and - 56.92 [1] - IH Contracts: The basis of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next against the SSE 50 index were - 1.94, - 4.34, - 3.54, and - 10.34 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 1.32, - 1.52, 0.48, and - 11.12 [1] - IC Contracts: The basis of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next against the CSI 500 index were 24.67, 9.07, - 12.53, and - 165.73 respectively, compared to the previous values of 31.51, 1.51, - 18.89, and - 191.09 [1] - IM Contracts: The basis of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next against the CSI 1000 index were 38.19, - 2.61, - 45.61, and - 252.21 respectively, compared to the previous values of 31.02, - 30.38, - 80.78, and - 304.98 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4165.29, 14366.91, 8811.04, and 3388.34 respectively, with increases of 1.09%, 1.75%, 1.60%, and 1.82% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26608.48, 51939.89, 6977.27, and 25376.43 respectively, with increases of 1.44%, 1.61%, 0.16%, and 0.45% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - US Fed Investigation: The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed headquarters. This has led to concerns about the Fed's independence, and the "Sell US" trade has resurfaced, with safe - haven demand pushing up the prices of spot gold and silver [2] - Chinese Government Investment Fund: Four Chinese government departments have jointly issued a work plan to clarify the layout and investment direction of government investment funds, aiming to support major strategies, key areas, and weak links where the market cannot effectively allocate resources [2] - China - EU Electric Vehicle Case: The EU will issue a guidance document on price - commitment applications, and China's Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products will encourage and support relevant enterprises to apply for price commitments [2] - Chinese Industrial Policy: The Minister of Industry and Information Technology stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will implement actions to revitalize traditional industries, promote the "AI +" initiative, and develop emerging industries [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Storage Chip Industry: The global storage chip industry chain is in a new round of price - increase cycle, and leading packaging and testing manufacturers have raised their quotes by up to 30% [2] - Real Estate Industry: Tianjin's housing construction department will manage the sales prices of new commercial housing to prevent excessive price drops [2] - Space Industry: The Mars sample return mission jointly carried out by NASA and ESA has been cancelled due to budget cuts, while China's Mars sample return plan is expected to be implemented in 2031 [2] - Power Industry: The generator rotor of a 630℃ power unit in a national power demonstration project has been successfully installed, with the power generation thermal efficiency of the two 630℃ ultra - supercritical double - reheat coal - fired generating units exceeding 50% [2]