Bank of China Securities·2026-01-13 02:12Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently facing significant challenges, with a decline in GDP contribution from the real estate and construction sectors, dropping from 15% in 2019 to 12% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The shift in housing demand from "having a house" to "having a good house" indicates a structural change in the market, with a projected annual housing demand of over 860 million square meters until 2035, primarily driven by improvement needs [7] - The report emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to address the ongoing market downturn, with potential policy directions including administrative, public fund, fiscal, urban renewal, and stock activation measures [7][9] Macro Perspective - The economy is undergoing a transformation, with a noticeable decline in the contribution of the real estate sector to GDP [7] - The population peaked in 2021 and has been declining, affecting housing demand dynamics, particularly among potential first-time buyers [7] - Employment and income expectations remain weak, impacting consumer willingness to purchase homes [7] Mid-Macro Perspective - Market transaction volumes and prices are continuously declining, with new home transactions in 100 cities down 15% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [7] - The frequency and effectiveness of local policy interventions have decreased, leading to rising inventory levels and prolonged de-stocking periods [7] - Real estate companies are experiencing significant financial strain, with funding levels dropping from 20.1 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [7] Micro Perspective - Home prices in first-tier cities have seen significant declines, with second-hand home prices dropping over 35% from their peak [7] - The expectation of falling home prices is growing among residents, with 23.5% anticipating further declines as of Q3 2025 [7] - The market is witnessing a shift towards improvement-type housing, with larger units (over 120 square meters) gaining market share [7] Policy Space - Future policy adjustments are expected to focus on loosening purchase restrictions in major cities and enhancing public fund policies [9] - Fiscal measures may include subsidies for home loans and adjustments to tax policies related to property transactions [9] - Urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to expand, particularly in transforming urban villages [9] Opportunities in the Real Estate Sector - The commercial real estate sector is poised for growth by adapting to new consumer demands and creating innovative shopping experiences [9] - Residential developers focusing on core cities and high-demand housing types are likely to benefit from market shifts [9] - The report highlights the potential for real estate investment trusts (REITs) to expand, particularly in commercial properties, as the market matures [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [9] - Smaller, agile firms that have made significant sales and land acquisition strides since 2024 are also recommended for consideration [9] - Companies innovating in the commercial real estate space, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]