华宝期货晨报煤焦-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's positive statements at the meeting have boosted market sentiment. After the start of the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials by downstream enterprises supports the upstream's confidence in price - holding. The short - term futures price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of over 3%. However, the price dropped at night, basically erasing the daily gain. On the spot side, coal prices in many places have rebounded from the low level recently. The quotation of Mongolian No. 5 coal at the port has increased by 113 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise the coke price, with the dry - quenched coke price increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the increase is planned to be implemented on January 15th. The coal - coke market has been strong recently due to the warming market sentiment and the downstream's seasonal replenishment [3] Fundamental Situation - After the start of the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 189.9 million tons and 73.4 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end has increased, while the clean coal inventory has decreased. This is mainly because downstream coking and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm for raw materials [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 16.46 million tons, 3.74 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [3] - On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded in the past two weeks, and the daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 229.5 million tons, an increase of 2.07 million tons compared with the previous week and 5.13 million tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small - scale recovery in the short term. Later, the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate, which will support the upstream's confidence in price - holding [3]