碳酸锂：资金驱动强势涨停，短期博弈加剧成材，重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will experience high - level fluctuations, and investors should be vigilant about price corrections, focusing on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate reached the daily limit at 156,060 yuan/ton yesterday, with the limit - down order volume remaining above 20,000 lots, trading volume of 68,500 lots, and open interest slightly decreasing to 506,700 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the warehouse receipts slightly increased to 25,970 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The sharp price increase significantly affected the spot market sentiment. Upstream lithium salt producers were more willing to sell and quote, and some quotes were higher than the futures price. Downstream procurement and inquiry activities increased, and the proportion of spot purchases in long - term contract negotiations increased compared to last year. The market generally expects the price to continue rising [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 9% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month, with a slight decline in the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes, and a slight increase in the operating rates of lithium mica and recycling. The total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [3]. - Demand: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory depletion. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while the sales and penetration rate of SMM new energy vehicles reached new highs, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing signs of inventory accumulation for the first time, and the total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [3]. Policy Impact - In 2026, the subsidy for automobile trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were used to stabilize price fluctuations [3]. - On January 4, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened the constraints on the supply side, which may intensify the supply shortage in the short term. On January 9, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - rebate policy, which may trigger a rush for export demand in the short term [3].