华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260113

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price center of finished products will move down and run weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Aluminum prices will remain high in the short - term, with an expected short - term strong performance, but high - price risks should be watched out for [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [2] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the US dollar is weakening. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting, but the market still expects two more rate cuts later this year [2] - For domestic mines, the supply shortage has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories are accumulating, and the intended purchase price is falling, with further downward space expected [3] - For imported mines, the intended transaction price has declined, the market is quiet, and alumina plants' procurement plans are cautious [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The overall pattern is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies", and high aluminum prices suppress consumption and operating rate recovery [3] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday [3] - The macro - performance is strong. The logic of the Fed's interest - rate cut - driven monetary easing cycle remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies have boosted market sentiment and demand expectations, keeping aluminum prices high [4]