格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (pure benzene) is "oscillating" [2] Core View of the Report - Amidst continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped by 12 yuan to 5523 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5420 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 85), and in Shandong, it was 5315 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 92). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1325 lots to 20300 lots, and short positions increased by 698 lots to 25500 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. The 2025 November import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48% and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume was 5.071144069 million tons, a 33.61% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the Jiangsu pure benzene port samples was 324,000 tons, up 6000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%. It was 149,700 tons higher than the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the estimated arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pickups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: Due to the ongoing instability in the Iranian situation and potential supply risks, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract increased by 0.38 dollars/barrel to 59.50 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract increased by 0.53 dollars/barrel to 63.87 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 9.9 to 436.8 yuan/barrel, and in the night session, it rose 0.2 to 437 yuan/barrel [2] - Other News: On January 11th, it was reported that the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope [2] Market Logic - With continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions and wait and see [2]