格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Supported by the USDA monthly supply - demand report, the ICE US cotton futures rebounded, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.91 cents, up 0.78%. There is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton, and the tight - balance expectation continues to dominate the market trend. Although the expansion of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference stimulates the import of foreign cotton and yarn to ease the supply shortage, the overall bullish view remains unchanged [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.91, up 50 points; 5 - month at 66.44, up 53 points; 7 - month at 67.86, up 55 points, with trading volume of about 66,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 794,361 and an open interest of 1,176,485. The settlement prices were 14,650 for January, 14,565 for May, and 14,730 for September [2] 3.2 Important Information - On January 4, spinning enterprises in the southern Xinjiang Bazhou region purchased 31 - grade double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The contract basis transaction price was 950 - 1050 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,500 - 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - As of December 18, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net exports of 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 56.03% of the expected annual export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01% [2] - So far this season, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, 39% of which is from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, CCI's cumulative purchase is equivalent to about 998,000 tons of lint cotton [2] - The cotton - growing area in West Texas, the US, is dry and windy, and the temperature in the central - southern and southeastern cotton - growing areas has rebounded [2] - On January 4, the spot price of cotton yarn rose slightly. After the holiday, spinning enterprises gradually resumed production, and the overall production and sales in the market were relatively stable, mostly in the shipping state. The cotton - yarn price continued to rise in some areas and remained stable in others [2] 3.3 Market Logic - Supported by the USDA monthly supply - demand report, the ICE US cotton futures rebounded, and there is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton. The tight - balance expectation dominates the market, and although the import of foreign cotton and yarn eases the supply shortage, the overall view is still bullish [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Build long positions in the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan/ton [2]