20260113申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output has declined month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The copper supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to mine supply disruptions, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price change: The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight [2]. - Supply: The concentrate supply is tight, the smelting profit is at the break - even point, and the smelting output has declined month - on - month but still shows high growth. The mine supply disruption leads to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,430 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,172 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 64.31 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 138,975 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight [2]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,214 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 40.90 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 107,450 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,185 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 10.40 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 497,825 tons, and the daily change was - 1,925 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,940 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 18,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 200.47 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 284,790 tons, and the daily change was 8,490 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,053 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 43.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 222,725 tons, and the daily change was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,290 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 48,200 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 87.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was 10 tons [2].