宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年1月13日）-20260113

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The USDA's January supply and demand report had an unexpectedly bearish impact on the soybean market, causing a significant drop in US soybean futures prices and potentially dragging down domestic soybean futures prices. The overall short - term soybean futures prices have weakened due to the lower import cost support [5][6]. - The palm oil market is in a game between potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia. The short - term palm oil futures price rebound is approaching the upper limit of the range, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [5]. - Core Logic: The USDA raised the US 2025/26 soybean production forecast, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the US soybean inventory. It also raised the Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in the global soybean ending inventory forecast. These factors put pressure on US soybean futures prices and may drag down domestic soybean futures prices [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][7]. - Core Logic: The strong palm oil export data in early January in Malaysia effectively offset the neutral impact of the MPOB December report. The market is in a game between the potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia, and the futures price is approaching the upper limit of the range and may fluctuate [7].