宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026年1月13日）-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term view is oscillation, medium - term view is oscillation, and intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, overall in low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and off - season pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment is warm, and ferrous metals are oscillating and stabilizing. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The inventory inflection point has appeared, construction steel mills are resuming production, rebar output is continuously increasing with more potential for growth, weakening the positive effect of low - supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, and downstream industries not improving, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The weak demand continues to drag down steel prices. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand remains weak, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [3].