工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日）-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.75%. The position decreased by 827 lots to 238,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,995 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 2.89%. The position decreased by 2,113 lots to 48,830 lots. The price of N-type re - fed polysilicon material by Baichuan remained stable at 55,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 55,000 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 5,005 yuan/ton. Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot - futures merchants. The manufacturers' inventory is gradually transferred to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory increases. Recently, the cost side has shown minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a volatile situation. There have been frequent news of anti - involution and industry self - discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown in Xinjiang before the Spring Festival, the production areas have started pre - holiday rush operations, resulting in concentrated warrant registrations, and the overheated speculative sentiment has cooled down. The upside premium space of polysilicon is limited. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,755 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 8,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan to 95 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,888, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons, the Huangpu Port inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the Tianjin Port inventory remained at 80,000 tons, the Kunming Port inventory remained at 52,000 tons, the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon remained at 457,850 tons. [4] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 1,305 yuan/ton to 49,995 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 3,530 yuan/ton to 48,725 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 55,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 1,305 yuan to 5,005 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,430, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 132,900 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 311,800 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 4,000 tons to 312,000 tons. [4] - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, the raw rubber price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, the 107 - glue price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the dimethyl silicone oil price increased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton. [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [6][9][11] 3.2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [14][16][18] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory and inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC. [20][21][23] 3.2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy. [26][28][30] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. Wang Heng mainly focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi mainly focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. [36][37]