Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures prices were firm and fluctuating on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,783 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.22%. The spot market started to decline, with the market prices in Shandong and Henan regions at 1,730 yuan/ton and 1,740 yuan/ton respectively, down 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton day-on-day. The industry's supply had a narrow fluctuation, with the daily output of the urea industry at 202,000 tons, a slight increase of 18,000 tons day-on-day. There was still an expectation of further increase in the future. The demand sentiment remained cautious with obvious regional differentiation. The daily sales-to-output ratio in the mainstream regions ranged from 10% - 20% at the low end to 80% - 120% at the high end, and there was an individual region with a ratio of 200%. In the short term, there was a game between supply and demand in the urea market. The result of the Indian tender in the international market was unclear, which still had an impact on the domestic market. The futures market had reached a stage high, and the room for further increase was limited. It was recommended to treat it with a high-level fluctuation and consolidation mindset in the short term. As the Spring Festival approached, market transactions would become dull, and supply and demand pressure might gradually emerge. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of urea supply, the atmosphere of spot transactions, the final result of the Indian tender, and the overall sentiment of the futures market. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. - Soda ash futures prices were fluctuating strongly on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,239 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.31%. The quotes of spot manufacturers were mostly stable, while the quotes of traders continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of the futures market. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region was 1,189 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton day-on-day. Fundamentally, large - scale plants in Henan and Inner Mongolia had increased their loads and resumed production, and the industry's operating rate had increased to 86.82%, with room for further improvement. The demand sentiment became more cautious, and some downstream enterprises' acceptance of the current price decreased, and their purchasing willingness weakened. In addition, there was still an expectation of water storage in the production lines of downstream float glass, which further suppressed the rigid demand level of soda ash. Overall, the soda ash futures market faced a game between fundamentals and external factors, and it was mainly in a short - term fluctuation and consolidation state. As the Spring Festival approached, the decline in rigid demand and the accumulation of enterprise inventories would continue to put pressure on the market. A bearish mindset was recommended from a medium - term perspective. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of new production capacity output, changes in downstream production capacity, macro and policy dynamics, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,143 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.09%. The spot price strengthened again, with the average price of the domestic float glass market at 1,096 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton day-on-day. Recently, glass production lines had been continuously shut down for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity in production in the industry was stable at around 150,000 tons. There were still plans for some production lines to undergo cold - repair before the Spring Festival, and the supply support expectation still existed. The follow - up sentiment on the demand side remained positive, and the daily sales - to - output ratio in the mainstream regions mostly remained above 100%, with an individual region at 90%. In the short term, the low supply and high - level spot transactions of glass continued to support the price - increasing mentality of glass manufacturers, but there was still a contradiction between supply and demand in the glass market, and the futures market mainly fluctuated widely. As the Spring Festival approached, the rigid demand might gradually decline, and the fundamentals would still be under pressure at that time. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production capacity, the strength and sustainability of spot transactions, and the overall trend of macro and commodities. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, on January 12, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 13,200, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 100 [5]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the daily output of the urea industry was 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 85.81%, a 4.55 - percentage - point increase compared with 81.26% in the same period last year [5]. - On January 12, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Anhui 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, on January 12, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4,220, a decrease of 700 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 878; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,876, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day [7]. - On January 12, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were: North China, light soda ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,250 yuan/ton; Central China, light soda ash 1,130 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,230 yuan/ton; East China, light soda ash 1,160 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,230 yuan/ton; South China, light soda ash 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton; Southwest, light soda ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,300 yuan/ton; Northwest, light soda ash 890 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 860 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.82%, compared with 84.7% on the previous working day [8]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1,096 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the daily output was 150,000 tons per day, unchanged day - on - day [8]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report presented multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources were iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][14][18][20][22][23]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has long been focused on the sugar industry research. She has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series books of the China Futures Association. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Best Futures Analyst selection of Futures Daily and Securities Times, the "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar" title from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and the "Best Chief Futures Analyst of Agricultural and Sideline Products" title in the 17th China Best Futures Analyst Selection of Securities Times and Futures Daily in 2024. Her futures practice qualification number is F0306200, and her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0000082 [25]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of Accounting and Finance from the University of Bristol, UK, is currently an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won awards in authoritative media and competitions such as the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Futures Daily, and Securities Times. She won the honors of "Senior Senior Analyst of Soda Ash" and "Senior Analyst of Urea" from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from 2024 to 2025. Her futures practice qualification number is F3067502, and her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0014869 [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a finance master from Yunnan University, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy. He has participated in the writing of relevant topics of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has long published articles on futures and spot websites. He won the "Senior Analyst of Textiles" title from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 and the "Best Agricultural and Sideline Product Futures Analyst" title in 2025. His futures practice qualification number is F03099994, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0021057 [25][26]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [28]
光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日）-20260113
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-01-13 02:58